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Mid-Day Report: Risk Aversion Continues on Greek Default Worry, Troika Conference Call WatchedSelloff in risk asset continues in early US session as concern on Greek default remains the focus of the markets. DOW opens sharply lower and is down over -200pts at the time of writing while major European indices are deep in red, with FTSE down -2.4%, DAX down -3.6% and CAC down -2.9%. US 10 year yield dives below 2% again. Dollar benefits from risk aversion with dollar index jumping sharply to 77.51 so far and is set to take on recent high of 77.78. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8702; (P) 0.8745; (R1) 0.8779; More The break of 0.8686 minor support suggests that EUR/GBP's recovery from 0.8529 is already completed at 0.8790. While such rebound was a bit stronger than expected, there is no change in the bearish outlook with 0.8884 resistance intact. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for retesting 0.8529 first. Break will resume the whole decline from 0.9083. On the upside, above 0.8790 will flip bias back to the upside and turn focus to 0.8884 again. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Bernanke To Add Stimulus. No QE3 YetThe most critical event this week is definitely the 2-day FOMC meeting on September 20-21. At the Jackson Hole Symposium in August, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first signaled that the meeting has been scheduled to 2 days (originally 1day) so that 'a fuller discussion'; on 'a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus'; is warranted. Also indicated in the August FOMC statement, the September meeting should be extended as policymakers need more time to discussion about 'the possible costs and benefits of various potential tools';. It would be anticlimactic if nothing happens at the meeting. As unveiled in the August FOMC minutes, the range of tools discussed among members included reinforcing forward guidance about the likely path of monetary policy, additional asset purchases, increasing the average maturity of securities holdings, reducing the interest rate paid on excess reserve balances. Yet, no preference was indicated. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound continued to fall after intra-day brief bounce to 1.5756 and stops placed below previous 8-month low at 1.5685 were triggered and bids at 1.5680 were absorbed, however, more buying interest from Asian sovereign names is seen at 1.5640-50 with more stops located below 1.5630-40 and 1.5600. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.5720-30 and sizeable offers are tipped at 1.5760-70 and further out at 1.5800 with large stops placed above 1.5810-20 and good offers are reported from 1.5850 up to 1.5900. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3750As euro has fallen again after intra-day brief bounce to 1.3706, adding credence to our view that early rebound from 1.3495 has possibly ended at 1.3937 last week and bearishness remains for further weakness towards support at 1.3591 and then towards next support at 1.3558, however, a drop below latter level is needed to confirm and bring resumption of early decline for an eventual retest of 1.3495. Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 0.9855Despite intra-day brief fall to 0.9766, lack of follow through selling and current sharp rebound suggest low is possibly formed and consolidation with upside bias is seen for test of resistance at 0.9951, a sustained breach of this level would suggest the retreat from 1.0027 has ended there and bring further gain to 0.9995/00 and then retest of this level. Looking ahead, only breach of 1.0027 would extend the rise from 0.9407 low to next resistance at 1.0060 and once this level is penetrated, this would signal a stronger retracement of early downtrend is underway to 1.0095/00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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