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Daily Report: Markets Steady as FOMC and BoE Minutes Awaited, Possibly SNB TooMarkets are generally steady today and traders are awaiting FOMC rate decision, where Fed is expected to announce some sort of operation twist. In addition to that BoE minutes will provide the details of debate of adding quantitative easing and would trigger some volatility in Sterling. Also, Swiss Franc dived overnight on rumors that SNB would raise the floor in EUR/CHF and the franc remains broadly weak. Focus will also be on whether SNB would really announce something. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8799; (P) 0.8860; (R1) 0.8931; More... USD/CHF's break of 0.8927 suggests that whole rebound from 0.7065 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rise would be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.7710 to 0.8927 from 0.8647 at 09399 first. On the downside, break of 0.8647 support is needed to suggest short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay mildly bullish in USD/CHF in near term even in case of retreat. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Bernanke To Add Stimulus. No QE3 YetThe most critical event this week is definitely the 2-day FOMC meeting on September 20-21. At the Jackson Hole Symposium in August, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first signaled that the meeting has been scheduled to 2 days (originally 1day) so that 'a fuller discussion'; on 'a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus'; is warranted. Also indicated in the August FOMC statement, the September meeting should be extended as policymakers need more time to discussion about 'the possible costs and benefits of various potential tools';. It would be anticlimactic if nothing happens at the meeting. As unveiled in the August FOMC minutes, the range of tools discussed among members included reinforcing forward guidance about the likely path of monetary policy, additional asset purchases, increasing the average maturity of securities holdings, reducing the interest rate paid on excess reserve balances. Yet, no preference was indicated. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The greenback briefly fall to a one month low of 76.11 (tripped stops below 76.25 barrier) against the Japanese yen, however, rumor of BOJ checking rate lifted the pair sharply higher to 77.86 before running into exporters’ offers again and once Japanese officials declined to comments on yen’s move, the currency pair retreated and is still hovering around 76.30/35. At the moment, bids from European names (UK & French) are reported at 76.10-20 for protection of another barrier at 76.00 with sizeable stops still seen below 75.90. On the upside, offers from various parties (partly due to half fiscal year end) are lined up from 76.50 up to 76.90 with stops only emerging above 77.00 and 77.40. Option expires include 76.45 (300 mln), 76.40 (200 mln), 75.95 (100 mln), 75.85 (100 mln). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5745Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.5747, as cable met renewed selling interest there and has retreated in line with our expectation, retaining our bearishness and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.5650/55, a break below there would signal the rebound from 1.5632 has ended and bring resumption of decline for a retest of this level. Once this support is penetrated, this would extend recent decline to 1.5600 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.3700The single currency has remained confined within narrow range as focus is on other major currencies, further consolidation would take place but as long as yesterday’s high of 1.3745 holds, mild downside bias remains for test of 1.3647 but break there is needed to signal top is possibly formed and bring another fall to previous support at 1.3586. Once this level is penetrated, this would extend the decline from 1.3937 to indicated previous support at 1.3556-58 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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