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Mid-Day Report: SNB Triggers Volatilities. But Risk Aversion Still the Main ThemeDeepening worry in European debt crisis was somewhat overshadowed by SNB's surprise announcement of an EUR/CHF floor today. Much volatility is seen in the forex markets as lead by strong rally in swiss crosses. Note than yen crosses are also sharply higher today possibly on concern that BoJ will follow SNB. Gold also retreats after making new record high against dollar and Euro. But as dusts start to settle, dollar is seen broadly higher against most major currencies. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.7820; (P) 0.7866; (R1) 0.7912; More... USD/CHF's strong break of 0.8246 resistance confirms resumption of rebound from 0.7065. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Also, the decisive break of 0.8275 resistance as well as the medium term falling channel indicates that 0.7065 is a medium term bottom. Further rise should be seen to correct the decline from 1.1730, targeting 100% projection of 0.7065 to 0.8246 from 0.7710 at 0.8891, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.8847. On the downside, below 0.8246 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But downside should be contained above 0.7710 support and bring another rise. |
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| Special Reports |
RBA Stands Still As Global Market Uncertainty Increases And Inflation Risks RemainsAs expected the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% in September. The initial market reaction was a rebound in the Aussie as the post-meeting statement turned out to be less dovish than previously anticipated. The central bank attributed the pause to the growing uncertainty in global economic outlook. Recent developments have damped confidence and tamed inflation. Against some of the market participants' forecasts, the RBA did not hint any signs on rate cut. BOC Withholds From Signaling TighteningRecent headwind in global economic outlook should deter BOC's tightening schedule. We believe the central bank will leave the policy rate unchanged at 1% in September. Indeed, Fed's decision to keep interest rates at exceptionally low levels at least until mid-2013 and the increasing downside risks to inflation signaled the BOC will leave the overnight rate unchanged at least until mid -2012. That said, it's also unlikely for the central bank to trim interest rates as headline inflation remains high and the job market is robust. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8325As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after intra-day SNB inspired rally, suggesting early rise from record low of 0.7068 is still in progress and would extend further gain to 0.8600, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8650 due to near term overbought condition and price should falter well below 0.8700, bring retreat later. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy again at 76.55Although the greenback has rebounded after finding support around 77.00, break of resistance at 77.70 is needed to confirm the rise from 75.94 record low has resumed, bring a stronger retracement of recent downtrend to resistance at 77.86, then 78.00/05 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 88.12-75.94) but price should falter below 78.50. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchCHF: The currency pair rallied in European session as SNB imposed a minimum EUR/CHF rate of 1.2000, the central bank also stated that it is fully prepared to take further action and buy foreign currency to prevent the Swiss franc from rising further. Stops above 0.8250 and 0.8300 were quickly tripped and price surged to a high of 0.8579 before easing whilst EUR/CHF is hovering just above 1.2000 level on weakness in euro. Bids from Swiss banks and corps are reported from 0.8500 down to 0.8450 and more buying interest should emerge around 0.8400, 0.8350 and further out at 0.8320/25. On the upside, some light offers are tipped at 0.8600 and also 0.8700, we also hear offers in EUR/CHF at 1.2050-60 and 1.2100. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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