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Mid-Day Report: Risk Sentiments Lifted Mildly by by ISM Manufacturing. PMI Poor in Eurozone, UKAfter being pressured for most of the day, risk sentiments are given a lift in early US session after better than expected ISM manufacturing report. The index dropped mildly to 50.6 in August. More importantly, it's well above expectation of 48.5 and avoided dipping into sub-50 contractionary zone. AUD/USD is taking lead after the release, together with rally in stocks. Initial jobless claims fell by 12k to 409k in the week ended August 27, inline with expectation. The four week moving average rose from 408.6k to 410.3k. Continuing claims dropped by 18k to 3.74m in the week ended August 20. After all, the jobless claims figures remained elevated. Unit labor cost was revised higher to 3.3% in Q2 while non-farm productivity was revised lower to -0.7%. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6210; (P) 1.6272; (R1) 1.6313; More. GBP/USD's break of 1.6207 support indicates that decline from 1.6618 has resumed. Intraday bias remiasn on the downsdie for 1.6110 supprot first. Break there will suggest that whole rebound from 1.5780 has finished at 1.6618 too. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for retesting 1.5780 key support level. On the upside, above 1.6333 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. |
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China Watch: Rebound in China's PMI Triggers No Change in Monetary PolicyChina's PMI climbed +0.2 points higher to 50.9 in August. While the data came in slightly higher than market expectations, the detailed report evidenced that the momentum of manufacturing activities has weakened when compared with the same period last year. China's exports sector has also been affected by the headwind faced in advanced economies. The risk of inflation remains as input prices unexpectedly rebounded during the month. Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated yesterday that stabilizing overall price levels remains the top priority task of the government. In light of heightening risks of global economic slowdown, we doubt if the government will roll out more tightening measures. Yet, a reversal of policies implemented also appears unlikely. Central Bank Forecasts: BOJ's Stance To Remain Accommodative After The New PMWe don't expect the monetary policy in Japan will change after the new Prime Minister on board. With economic growth remaining sluggish and deflation still a threat, the BOJ will leave the policy rate at virtually 0% at least until 2012. The central bank will also maintain the asset-purchase program and may expand the scope of assets if necessary. With regard to yen's strength, we believe the government has not given up intervention though the impacts so far have not been significant. |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4380Despite intra-day selloff to 1.4263, as the single currency recovered from there, suggesting consolidation would take place and test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.4320) and possibly the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4360) cannot be ruled out, however, previous support at 1.4385 should limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend the decline from this week’s high of 1.4550 to previous support at 1.4259, then 1.4244 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0605As aussie has risen again after brief pullback, suggesting the rise from 0.9927 (a leg trough) is still in progress and further gain towards resistance at 1.0785-90 would be seen, however, as this move is viewed as the b leg of major correction from record high of 1.1081, upside should be limited to 1.0850 and reckon 1.0900 would hold from here, bring c leg decline later this month. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency tumbled again today in European session on release of weaker-than-expected eurozone Aug manufacturing PMI data (as suggested in our previous update), stops at 1.4320 and 1.4300 were triggered and bids from Asian CB at 1.4280 were also filled, however, option-related (1.4300 NY cut) buying interest limited euro’s downside to 1.4263. At the moment, bids from Middle East names are reported at 1.4250-60 with more stops placed below 1.4250 and 1.4200, fresh demand would only emerge around 1.4180/85 and 1.4150. In the meantime, there are rumors that U.S. ISM manufacturing index (14:00GMT) will come much weaker than expected at 43.5 with forecast centered at 48.5. On the upside, offers from various parties are located at 1.4320-30 and 1.4350 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 1.4380-90. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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