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Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovers on Eurobond Talks, USD/JPY Lower after Retail SalesEuro and European stocks recover today on news that European Commission President Barroso European Parliament that "the commission will soon present options for the introduction of euro bonds". Though, Barroso is expected to face strong opposition from Germany and France. German Chancellor Merkel emphasized again yesterday that the solution to the sovereign crisis is a "step-by-step" process and no single "buzzwords" would solve the problem. France said that mutualization of debt would be the "final stage of a process of convergence" but the current work is on repairing public finances. Euro is also lifted mildly by short covering ahead of the emergency conference call between German Chancellor Merkel, French President Sarkozy and Greek Prime Minister Papandreou. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 76.74; (P) 77.00; (R1) 77.19; More. Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for 75.94 support. As noted before, consolidation from 75.94 might have finished at 77.85 already and break of this support will confirm resumption of whole fall from 85.51 to 61.8% projection of 80.23 to 75.94 from 77.85 at 75.19 first. On the upside, above 77.06 minor resistance, though, will turn bias neutral and would possibly extend the consolidation from 75.94 for a while. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
SNB To Reiterate Unlimited Intervention To Prevent Excessive CHF AppreciationThe SNB meeting on Thursday will likely be reiteration on what was said on September 6, when the central bank drew a line in sand to curb Swiss franc's appreciation. We are, however, interested to see how the SNB would update the inflation forecasts. We expect to see downward revisions from 3 months ago given the recent global economic turmoil and strength in CHF. RBNZ Refrains From Reversing Insurance CutGiven the dramatic global economic downturn since the July RBNZ meeting, we now believe that the central bank will remain on hold in September and probably in October. While there is yet little evidence showing New Zealand's outlook has been hurt by the rising uncertainty in US economy and European debt crisis, such a small and open economy is vulnerable to international shocks. We believe it's prudent for the RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and to deliver a less hawkish statement than the previous one. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8710As the greenback has fallen again after faltering below indicated resistance at 0.8880/85, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and near term downside risk remains for a stronger retracement to 0.8730 but reckon 0.8706 (previous support) would attract renewed buying interest and bring another rise later. A breach of indicated resistance at 0.8880/85 is needed to signal the pullback from 0.8927 has ended and bring retest of this level, above there would extend upmove from record low of 0.7068 to 0.8950 and possibly 0.8970 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 106.00The single currency has remained confined within narrow range after falling to 103.90 earlier this week and further consolidation should take place, however, upside should be limited to 106.00/10, bring another decline later. We are keeping our new count that the wave (ii) of 3 has already ended at 123.33 and the breach of previous support at 105.44 signals the wave (iii) is in progress for further weakness to 103.50, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 103.00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: Despite falling to another multi-month low of 1.5706, cable quickly rebounded as UK job data came in not as bad as speculated which forced traders to cover their pre-positioned short positions, stops at 1.5770-80 and 1.5800 were triggered. Having said that, offers from Eastern European names are still noted at 1.5840-50 with more stops seen above 1.5850 and 1.5890-00. On the downside, cross-related bids are reported at 1.5750-60 and further out at 1.5710-20 with stops building up below 1.5700. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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