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Daily Report: EUR/USD Pressing 1.3 as Italy and German Auctions EyedAsian markets are generally weak today following the post FOMC selloff in US overnight. As noted yesterday, dollar index broke 80 psychological level and completed a medium term bullish reversal pattern. More upside in the greenback is anticipated, at least in near term. Euro remains the weaker currency this on a number of concerns and it seems that markets are getting increasingly unconvinced with the results of last week's EU summit as time passes. Bond auctions will continue to watched as Italy will sell as maximum of EUR 5b 5 year bonds today while Germany will sell EUR 5b of 2-year notes. EUR/USD is vulnerable to deeper selloff through 1.3 psychological level. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 101.09; (P) 102.03; (R1) 102.61; More EUR/JPY drops to as low as 101.48 so far today as fall from 111.57 resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 100.74 first. Break will confirm medium term down trend resumption. In such case, next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 111.57 to 102.48 from 105.54 at 99.92, which is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, above 102.98 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 105.54 is needed to indicate short term bottoming, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish and further decline is expected. |
| Special Report |
Fed On Hold, Delivers More Upbeat Economic OutlookThe Fed decided to leave the policy rate and operation twist unchanged. This is expected as recent economic data in the US improved but sovereign debt problems in the Eurozone remained a great uncertainty. Policymakers would prefer to stand on the sideline and monitor the developments for the time being. In the accompanying statement, the Fed changed to a mildly more positive tone amid acknowledgement of positive domestic developments since the last meeting. SNB May Raise EURCHF Ceiling, Send Interest Rate To NegativeSwiss franc remained fragile, hovering within a narrow trading range of 1.22-1.24, amid speculations that the SNB would intervene against appreciation of the currency. Economic growth and inflation have moderated since the last meeting. Together with persistent risks of sovereign crisis in the Eurozone, policymakers would likely delivered a rather downbeat statement, warning against further deterioration in domestic and global economic prospects. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency slipped to as low as 1.3009 overnight in New York on dollar's broad-based strength (dollar index surged to highest level since January), stops below 1.3100 and 1.3050 were triggered, however, defensive bids to protect 1.3000 barrier limited euro's downside so far and price has recovered in Asia. At the moment, offers are reported at 1.3060 and 1.3090-00 with mixture of offers and stops seen further out at 1.3155-65. On the downside, bids are still noted above 1.3000 with stops building up below the barrier and also at 1.2950 and 1.2940. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3120Yesterday’s selloff adds credence to our bearish view and recent decline from 1.3550 is still in progress, then further weakness to psychological support at 1.3000 would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain downside bias and extend fall to 1.2970, however, near term oversold condition has increased risk of a rebound later and 1.2950 should hold. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.40Although the greenback has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 77.64 yesterday, a break of the indicated resistance at 78.11-16 is needed to retain bullishness and signal the correction from 78.29 has ended, bring retest of this level but it is necessary to break there to extend the rise from 76.58 support towards 78.50, however, price should falter well below resistance at 79.10 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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