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Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovered Mildly on Bill Auctions and German ZEW, Undone by Poor US Retail SalesRisk sentiments was lifted briefly earlier today by solid bills auction in Eurozone and upside surprise in German ZEW. However, dollar regains strength on weaker than expected retail sales data from US. Headline sales rose 0.2% in November versus expectation of 0.6%. Ex-auto sales also missed expectation and rose 0.2% only, versus consensus of 0.4%. EUR/USD is held well below minor resistance of 1.3281 and thus, more downside is still in favor. Meanwhile the common currency is still soft against other major currencies despite mild recovery. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3106; (P) 1.3243 (R1) 1.3324; More. With 1.3281 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR?USD remains on the downside for 1.3145 support. Break will confirm resumption of the whole down trend from 1.4939 and should target 1.2873 support next. On the upside, above 1.3281 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 1.3538 resistance and bring another fall. |
| Special Report |
FED to Stay on the Sideline in December. Discussion on Improving Communication to ContinueThe December FOMC meeting will likely be a non-event. With operation twist started and recent economic data improved, policymakers would prefer to stand on the sideline and monitor the developments. The meeting would again focus on tools to improving communication with the market. However, we do not expect any material outcome at least until January when Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a press conference and when the latest economic projections are released. SNB May Raise EURCHF Ceiling, Send Interest Rate To NegativeSwiss franc remained fragile, hovering within a narrow trading range of 1.22-1.24, amid speculations that the SNB would intervene against appreciation of the currency. Economic growth and inflation have moderated since the last meeting. Together with persistent risks of sovereign crisis in the Eurozone, policymakers would likely delivered a rather downbeat statement, warning against further deterioration in domestic and global economic prospects. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency popped to an intra-day high of 1.3237 briefly on rumors that German parliament will support the use of Bundesbank funds for the IMF, offers at 1.3220-30 were cleared, however, the pair quickly retreated back down in part due to no confirmation. At the moment, bids from a U.S. big name is reported at 1.3160-70 for protection of 1.3150 option barrier and stops remain below this level with next barrier tipped further out at 1.3100. On the upside, more selling interest is located at 1.3250 with stops building up above 1.3290-00. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5630Despite intra-day brief retreat to 1.5566, lack of follow through selling and current rebound suggest consolidation would be seen, however, reckon intra-day high of 1.5629 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of 1.5537 support would extend the fall from 1.5780 top to 1.5500 but it is necessary to see a breach of 1.5469 support to signal the rebound from 1.5423 has indeed ended Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 103.55The single currency fell sharply yesterday and broke below support at 103.00, adding credence to our bearish view and a retest of previous low at 102.50 would be seen, break there would extend the decline from 111.57 (a leg top) to 102.00 and possibly towards 101.50/55, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 101.00 and risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later this week. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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