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Daily Report: Dollar Retreats Mildly as Risk Aversion RecedesDollar is mildly softer today as risk aversion recedes on solid data from US overnight. Asian equities are genearlly higher following the mild 45pts recovery in DOW. Fitch downgraded some of the world's largest banks on increasing challenges in the financial markets but the news was ignored. Barclays and Credit Suisse were cut by tow notches to A, while BofA, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Deusche Bank and Goldman Sachs were cut by one notch. EUR/USD is back above 1.3 psychological level and would likely consolidate above recent low of 1.2946 for a short while. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0309; (P) 1.0357; (R1) 1.0394; More... USD/CAD's sharp retreat from 1.0422 suggest that a temporary top is formed and intraday bias is turned neutral. As long as 1.0262 support turned resistance holds, another rise will remain mildly in favor. Above 1.0422 will target 1.0522 resistance first. Break there will argue that recent triangle consolidation is finished and should then send USD/CAD through 1.0656 high to extend the rebound from 0.9406. However, break of 1.0262 will flip bias back to the downside for another fall to extend the consolidation from 1.0656. |
| Special Report |
SNB Leaves Interest Rates And Minimum Exchange Rate Unchanged. Warns Of Excessive Strength In FrancThe SNB left the target range for 3-month Libor at 0-0.25% and the "minimum exchange rate" at CHF1.20 per EUR. The decision was widely expected by the market but we believe the central bank might raise the limit of EURCHF in coming months should the economic outlook deteriorates further. Indeed, firms in the country have been urging the central bank to further curb the currency's strength to boost exports. The SNB revised lower economic and inflation forecasts. While growth is expected to slow further, recession remains unlikely given the data released since the previous meeting. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency edged higher again in late New York trade, mixture of offers and stops at 1.3050 still limited euro’s upside in Asia and more selling interest is seen further out at 1.3090-00 with stops seen above there but larger offers are tipped at 1.3120-30 and 1.3150-60. On the downside, first bids are reported at 1.3000 with better size buy orders placed at 1.2950-60 and stops are building up below 1.2940 and further out at 1.2900. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5625As the British pound has rebounded again after finding support above the Kijun-Sen and cable has penetrated the Ichimoku cloud top, adding credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed at 1.5408 earlier this week and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to 1.5600, however, reckon 1.5625-30 would limit upside and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3130As euro has rebounded again and price has already traded inside the Ichimoku cloud area, suggesting further consolidation would take place and another corrective bounce to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3091) would be seen, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.3132 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3434-1.2945), bring another decline. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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