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Mid-Day Report: Euro Weighed Down by German Comments, Sterling Firm Despite Weak DataEuros dips broadly today as the hope on the EU summit was dampened by comments from a senior German official. Remained in anonymity, the official said that Germany would object to the proposal of combining the current and EFSF and the permanent Eurozone bailout fund as some governments seems not grasping the gravity of the situation. This is in contrast to the speculation that there are discussions going on to about letting EFSF continue to run and add another EUR 500b in mid-2012. Nonetheless, markets are still hopeful that EU leaders would have some sort of agreement on the "fiscal compact" while ECB is expected to cut rates tomorrow and provide additional liquidity measures. Loss in Euro is so far limited as it stays in range against dollar and yen. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8550; (P) 0.8577; (R1) 0.8615; More EUR/GBP's sharp fall today and break of 0.8520 minor support suggests that fall from 0.8664 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8485 support next. Break there will confirm resumption of whole decline from 0.9083 and should target 100% projection of 0.9083 to 0.8529 from 0.8830 at 0.8276. On the upside, above 0.8614 resistance will delay the bearish case once again and extend the consolidation from 0.8485. But even in that case, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.8830 to 0.8485 at 0.8698 to complete the consolidation and bring decline resumption eventually. |
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| Special Reports |
BOC Leaves Rates Unchanged, No Plan for Adjustment YetThe BOC left the overnight rate at 1%, as widely expected by the market, although global economic outlook has deteriorated sharply and the outlook of European sovereign debt problems remained uncertain. Although policymakers expected the recession in Europe will be 'more pronounced', recent economic data showing stronger-than-expected US economic activities in would lend support to Canada's growth. There have no signs of monetary easing but the central bank would probably keep interest rates at ultra low levels for some time. RBA Cut for Second Consecutive MonthIn line with market expectations, the RBA lowered the cash rate for a second consecutive month, by -25 bps to 4.5%, amid worries that the financial turmoil in Eurozone would further drag down economic conditions in Australia. The slowdown in Chinese growth would also reduce demand of Australia's exports. Policymakers believe that growth will be about-trend while inflation will remain within the target range of 2-3%. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.3454, the single currency ran into heavy offers there and dropped again, first cleared bids at 1.3400 and euro looks set to trigger stops below 1.3360, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3330-35, more stops are located at 1.3320 and 1.3300. On the upside, offers are now reported at 1.3400-10 and also at 1.3450 (in good size) with stops building up above 1.3455-60 and bigger stops are planted above 1.3490-00. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3440Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.3454, as the single currency has retreated after failing to penetrate the Ichimoku cloud top, suggesting consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen and break of indicated minor support at 1.3360/65 would confirm top is formed, bring further fall to yesterday’s low at 1.3334, once this level is penetrated, this would extend the fall from 1.3550 (last week’s high) to 1.3320 and then 1.3300. Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8590Despite intra-day brief bounce to 0.8614, as euro ran into heavy offers just below previous resistance at 0.8620 and has retreated sharply, suggesting a test of indicated support at 0.8518-21 would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness and signal recent decline has resumed for a retest of 0.8486, then towards 0.8450. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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