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Daily Report: Euro Opens Higher on Ambitious Italian Austerity Package, But Recovery WeakItalian Prime Minister and Finance Minister Monti unveiled an ambitious EUR 30b austerity package over the weekend to eliminate the budget deficit by 2013. The package includes measures to cut cost of government and combat tax evasion. Monti called these the "Save Italy" measures and pledged to "share the sacrifices" fairly. There would be sharp cuts to regional governments, reintroduction a property tax, prohibit cash transactions above EUR 1k, raising VAT by 2pts to 23% and give incentives for business for new hiring. Retirement age would not be raised to 62 for women and 66 for men, with incentives to keep working until 70. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 103.84; (P) 104.76; (R1) 105.42; More Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Another rise cannot be ruled out with 103.33 minor support intact. But the choppy structure of the recovery from 102.48 suggests it's merely a correction. Hence, even n case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited by 50% retracement of 111.57 to 102.48 at 107.25 and bring fall resumption eventually. Below 103.33 will flip bias back to the downside and send EUR/JPY through 102.48 to retest 100.74 low. However, sustained break of 107.25 fibo level will shift favor to the case that rise from 102.48 is indeed the third leg of the consolidation from 100.74 and would possibly send the cross through 111.57 before completion. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency dropped sharply from Friday’s high of 1.3550 to as low as 1.3363, euro found decent demand there and has rebounded on some good news out of eurozone, bids are reported from 1.3400 down to 1.3360 with some stops building up below 1.3350-60 but more buying interest is likely to emerge around 1.3300. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3450-60 and also 1.3500 with light stops placed above 1.3500-10, followed by mixture of offers and stops located at 1.3550-60. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3465Despite Friday’s brief rise to 1.3550, lack of follow through buying on break of last week’s high of 1.3533 and the subsequent sharp retreat to 1.3363 suggest top is formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for another test of said support, break there would add credence to this view and extend weakness to 1.3330 and possibly towards 1.3300 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 77.30Despite intra-day rise to 78.11, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below indicated previous resistance at 78.16, suggesting consolidation below this level would take place initially today, however, the Ichimoku cloud (now at 77.73-74) should limit downside and bring another rebound later. Above said resistance at 78.16 would add credence to our view that correction from 78.29 has ended and bring retest of this level. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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