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Mid-Day Report: Euro Volatile But Lacks DirectionEuro spiked higher earlier today on report that China is going to create a $300b investment vehicle for managing investment funds in US and Europe. However, markets are rather unimpressed by the fiscal compact agreed by 23 of EU nations, not all 27 nations. And in such case, the new rules will only operate as intergovernmental agreements and couldn't be enforced through change of treaty. The rest of the nations, except UK, would consult their parliaments before confirming whether to join the agreement. But UK has made it clear that they won't join as there was "fundamental disagreement". And still, every single country will need to take the issue back to parliament s for approval. Under the pact, the Eurozone member states, plus six other EU states, agreed to run minimal budget deficits and allow European Court of Justice the right to strike down national law that don't enforce the discipline. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3266; (P) 1.3363 (R1) 1.3437; More. EUR/USD is still bounded in the choppy sideway pattern from 1.3538 and intraday bias remains neutral. Another decline is still in favor with 1.3614 resistance intact. Below 1.3259 will indicate that choppy recovery from 1.3212 is finished and recent fall from 1.4246 is ready to resume. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside and send EUR/USD through 1.3212 to retest 1.3145 first. A break above 1.3538 will turn focus back to 1.3614 instead. Break there will indicate fall from 1.4246 is finished and bring stronger rally towards this resistance. |
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| Special Reports |
ECB Cuts Rates, Announces Unconventional Easing MeasuresAs expected the ECB lowered the main refinancing rate by -25 bps to 1.0%. In addition, several new easing measures, including 3-year LTRO, increase in collateral availability and reduction in requirement ratio, were also announced. ECB staff downgraded the economic outlook but revised up inflation forecasts for 2012. It's probably the stubbornly high inflation that refrained policymakers from cutting interest rates by -50 bps. RBNZ On Hold. Growth Forecasts Down Amid Highly Uncertain OutlookThe RBNZ left the OCR at 2.5% in December and policymakers delivered a more downbeat tone in the accompanying statement. The overhang in the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and the weakter-than-expected domestic data in recent month signaled that risks are on the downside for the economic outlook New Zealand. While the chance of a rate hike is unlikely at least until the second half of next year, a rate in increasingly possible in coming months. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency went through a roller-coaster session today, slipping to an intra-day low of 1.3282 before staging a strong rebound to as high as 1.3434 on news that PBOC will create a $300 billion FX investment vehicle with part of the focused on Europe, stops at 1.3380 were stopped and offers and 1.3400 were also cleared, however, the single currency then ran into heavy offers around 1.3430-35 and has retreated sharply from 1.3434. At the moment, option related offers are reported at 1.3420-30 with stops building up above 1.3435-40 and more above 1.3460 and 1.3490. on the downside, bids are reported from 1.3330 down to 1.3300 with stops placed below 1.3280 and 1.3250 (large). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5720Although cable met renewed selling interest at 1.5735 and dropped sharply to as low as 1.5601 (just missed our target by 1 pip), as price has rebounded after holding above intra-day low at 1.5585, suggesting further choppy trading within near term established range would take place and recovery to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5666), then the upper Kumo (now at 1.5707) cannot be ruled out Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8615Despite yesterday’s fall to 0.8496, as the single currency has recovered after holding above indicated previous support at 0.8486, suggesting further consolidation would take place and recovery to 0.8590-00 cannot be ruled out, however, resistance at 0.8620 should limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend the decline from 0.9084for weakness to 0.8450 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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