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Daily Report: RBNZ on Hold, Markets Steady ahead of ECB and BoEWhile the Asian equities are mildly soft on poor economic data, the forex markets are pretty steady so far. Investors remained cautious ahead of two major events this week, today's ECB meeting and tomorrow's EU summit. It's widely expected that President Draghi will announce a rate cut of at least -25 bps together with a set of stimulus measures. Besides rate cut, the central bank is expected to announce additional 12-month LTROs for 1Q12 and possibly 2Q12. It is also expected that the ECB would widen collateral acceptable for borrowing money from the central bank. The BOE will have meeting today but it's expected that no change will be announced. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/AUD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2999; (P) 1.3048; (R1) 1.3076; More. EUR/AUD edged further lower to 1.3019 so far. Even though downside momentum remains unconvincing with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, deeper decline is still expected with 1.3230 resistance intact, towards 1.2926 key support level. But once again, note again that EUR/AUD has been in consolidation pattern between 1.2926/4341 for nearly a year and so far, there is no clear indication of break out yet. Hence, we'd be cautious on reversal signal below 1.3 psychological level. A break of 1.3230 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming and should trigger rebound as another rising leg of the range trading. |
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| Special Reports |
RBNZ On Hold. Growth Forecasts Down Amid Highly Uncertain OutlookThe RBNZ left the OCR at 2.5% in December and policymakers delivered a more downbeat tone in the accompanying statement. The overhang in the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and the weakter-than-expected domestic data in recent month signaled that risks are on the downside for the economic outlook New Zealand. While the chance of a rate hike is unlikely at least until the second half of next year, a rate in increasingly possible in coming months. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite falling to 1.3334 in European session yesterday, the single currency has rebounded since on solid economic data out of eurozone and price has continued to edge higher today in Asia, offers at 1.3430 were just cleared and mixture of offers and stops at 1.3450-60 is now in focus, however, more selling interest is tipped at 1.3480 with stops building up above 1.3490-00. On the downside, bids are lining up from 1.3400 down to 1.3360 with some stops placed below 1.3350 but combinations of bids and stops are still seen at 1.3320-30 and 1.3300. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5690As cable has continued to trade with a firm undertone after yesterday’s cross-inspired strong rebound to 1.5723, suggesting caution on our short position entered at 1.5690 and resistance at 1.5723 needs to hold to retain our consolidative view and bring another retreat later. Below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5659) would bring test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5639), then the lower Kumo (now at 1.5608) Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 77.30The greenback fell marginally again to 77.59 this morning and although near term downside risk remains, as long as 77.50 holds, upside bias remains for another rebound to resistance at 78.11-16. Above there would add credence to our view that correction from 78.29 has ended and bring retest of this level but only a sustained breach of this previous resistance would confirm the rise from 76.58 has resumed and extend to 78.50/55 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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