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Mid-Day Report: Swiss Franc Jumps as SNB Kept EUR/CHF Floor UnchangedThe SNB left the target range for 3-month Libor at 0-0.25% and the "minimum exchange rate" at CHF1.20 per EUR. The decision was widely expected by the market but we believe the central bank might raise the limit of EURCHF in coming months should the economic outlook deteriorates further. Indeed, firms in the country have been urging the central bank to further curb the currency's strength to boost exports. The SNB revised lower economic and inflation forecasts. While growth is expected to slow further, recession remains unlikely given the data released since the previous meeting. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2323; (P) 1.2351; (R1) 1.2403; More. EUR/CHF's sharp fall today suggests that rebound from 1.2224 has finished at 1.2443 already. More importantly, recent consolidation from 1.2472 is still in progress and another falling leg has just started. Bias is mildly on the downside for 1.2224 and below. Though, strong support should be seen above 1.2121 and bring another rise to continue the sideway pattern. On the upside, sustained break of 1.2472 resistance is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, outlook will remain neutral. And, unless SNB does act, the neutral outlook shouldn't be changed. |
| Special Report |
SNB Leaves Interest Rates And Minimum Exchange Rate Unchanged. Warns Of Excessive Strength In FrancThe SNB left the target range for 3-month Libor at 0-0.25% and the "minimum exchange rate" at CHF1.20 per EUR. The decision was widely expected by the market but we believe the central bank might raise the limit of EURCHF in coming months should the economic outlook deteriorates further. Indeed, firms in the country have been urging the central bank to further curb the currency's strength to boost exports. The SNB revised lower economic and inflation forecasts. While growth is expected to slow further, recession remains unlikely given the data released since the previous meeting. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchCHF: The greenback dropped sharply in European session as SNB kept the 3 month Libor target rate at zero and did not change the EUR/CHF minimum rate at 1.2000, bids disappeared and stops below 0.9500, 0.9450 and 0.9430 were all triggered. At the moment, some bids are reported at 0.9370 and 0.9340-50 with more stops seen below 0.9330-40 and 0.9290. On the upside, offers are now reported at 0.9450-60 and also 0.9500 with mixture of offers and stops tipped at 0.9540-50. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5625As the British pound has continued to move higher after finding renewed buying interest at 1.5433, suggesting a temporary low has been formed at 1.5408 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to the upper Kumo (now at 1.5554) and possibly 1.5600, however, reckon 1.5625-30 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5469) would bring test of said support at 1.5433 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0135Despite intra-day brief fall to 0.9862, as aussie has recovered from there, suggesting consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen and rebound to 1.0000 and 1.0050 cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.0130/35 and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend the fall from 1.0382 top to 0.9800, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.9750 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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