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Daily Report: Dollar Higher on Risk Aversion, But Stays in Range So FarAsian markets are broadly lower following yesterday's ECB disappointment. In addition to that, sentiments are generally weighed down by dimmed hope of substantial progress from the EU summit. One of the focuses is that EU leaders seemed to have agreed that the bailout fund won't get a banking license. The implication is, the bailout fund won't be able to do direct capitalization of banks and won't have access to ECB funding. Dollar index is back pressing 79 level for the moment But after all, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF are all kept in familiar range so far. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5628; (P) 1.5675; (R1) 1.5757; More. GBP/USD continues to stay in range of 1.5561/5779 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.5779 will resume the rebound from 1.5422 and target 1.5887 resistance. Break of 1.5887 will confirm completion of fall from 1.6165 and would target a test on this high. Nonetheless, there is no confirmation of reversal with 1.5887 resistance intact. Break of 1.5561 minor support will indicate that rebound from 1.5422 has completed and will flip bias back to the downside to extend the fall from 1.6165 to below 1.5422. |
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ECB Cuts Rates, Announces Unconventional Easing MeasuresAs expected the ECB lowered the main refinancing rate by -25 bps to 1.0%. In addition, several new easing measures, including 3-year LTRO, increase in collateral availability and reduction in requirement ratio, were also announced. ECB staff downgraded the economic outlook but revised up inflation forecasts for 2012. It's probably the stubbornly high inflation that refrained policymakers from cutting interest rates by -50 bps. RBNZ On Hold. Growth Forecasts Down Amid Highly Uncertain OutlookThe RBNZ left the OCR at 2.5% in December and policymakers delivered a more downbeat tone in the accompanying statement. The overhang in the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and the weakter-than-expected domestic data in recent month signaled that risks are on the downside for the economic outlook New Zealand. While the chance of a rate hike is unlikely at least until the second half of next year, a rate in increasingly possible in coming months. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency staged a brief bounce to 1.3460, euro tumbled from there as new ECB chairman Draghi denied the central bank would buy bonds in exchange of EU's tightening fiscal rules, the pair slipped to as low as 1.3289 in New York before rebounding, renewed selling interest emerged again around 1.3370/75 and price has retreated again. At the moment, offers are still noted at 1.3370-75 and also 1.3400-10 with stops seen above 1.3420 and 1.3460 (large). On the downside, bids from Middle East names are tipped at 1.3300 and 1.3290 with stops placed below 1.3280, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3250-60. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9190Despite yesterday’s brief fall to 0.9176, as the greenback found decent demand above previous support at 0.9165 and has staged a strong rebound from there, retaining our bullishness and signal correction from 0.9299 has ended there, hence upside bias remains for another test of this level, however, break of recent high of 0.9331 is needed to confirm early upmove has resumed and extend headway to 0.9360/65 Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5680Despite yesterday’s brief rise to 1.5770, as cable has retreated sharply after faltering below recent high of 1.5780, retaining our consolidative view and further choppy trading is seen with mild downside bias for test of indicated support at 1.5562, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness and signal early rebound from 1.5423 has ended at 1.5780 and bring further fall to next support at 1.5526 later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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