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Daily Report: Sentiments Weighed Down by S&P Warning, Aussie Lower on RBA CutMarket sentiments in Asian are weighed by S&P put 15 Europeans countries on review for possible downgrade. This time, even Germany and France may lose their AAA ratings subject to the result of this week's highly anticipated EU summit. S&P warned that ratings of Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands and Luxembourg might be cut by one notch which others could be lowered by two notches. S&P noted that this week's EU summit is "an opportunity for policymakers to break the pattern of what we consider to have been defensive and piecemeal measures to date... and advance a credible response to the crisis that would go far towards restoring investor confidence." But, S&P warned that "if the response of policymakers is not viewed by investors as robust, we believe market confidence could take another, possibly steep, drop downwards" and force downgrades. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0213; (P) 1.0259; (R1) 1.0315; More AUD/USD dips to as low as 1.0165 so far today as consolidation from 1.0328 temporary top continues. Intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidative trading and deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But after all, downside is expected to be contained by 0.9942 minor support and resumption of rally from 0.9663. Above 1.0328 will flip bias back to the upside for 1.0752 first. Break will confirm resumption of whole rally from 0.9387. Nonetheless, below 0.9942 will flip bias back to the downside and would resume the fall from 1.0752 to 0.9387 low. |
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RBA Cut for Second Consecutive MonthIn line with market expectations, the RBA lowered the cash rate for a second consecutive month, by -25 bps to 4.5%, amid worries that the financial turmoil in Eurozone would further drag down economic conditions in Australia. The slowdown in Chinese growth would also reduce demand of Australia's exports. Policymakers believe that growth will be about-trend while inflation will remain within the target range of 2-3%. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency rebounded yesterday in part due to announcement from Merkel and Sarkozy to tighten EU budget rules, euro ran into heavy offers just below 1.3500 and has retreated from yesterday’s high of 1.3486 on report that 6 AAA rating countries (including Germany) in eurozone would be put under credit watch for downgrades, bids at 1.3420 were filled and stops below 1.3400 were triggered and mixture of bids and stops at 1.3350-60 is now in focus but some bids are noted at 1.3330 with more stops seen below 1.3320, 1.3300 and 1.3250. On the upside, offers from Asian names are tipped at 1.3400, 1.3420 and further out at 1.3450 with stops only emerging above 1.3500. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5680Despite yesterday’s sharp rebound to 1.5721, as the British pound has retreated after faltering below indicated resistance at 1.5728 (last Friday’s high), suggesting the rebound from 1.5577 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for another fall towards said support. Having said that, break there is needed to add credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.5780 last week, bring further fall to 1.5550 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3430Despite yesterday’s rebound to 1.3486, the subsequent anticipated selloff has retained our bearish view that top has been formed at 1.3550 last week and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.3320/25 and possibly towards 1.3300. Looking ahead, only break of support at 1.3259 would signal the correction from 1.3212 low has ended at 1.3550 and bring further decline towards this level later this week Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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