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Monday, September 14, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 9-14-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Extends Rally on Falling Stocks, Dollar Recovers Mildly

Yen crosses extend recent fall as the week starts on broad based weakness in Asian stock on concern of escalating trade protectionism between US and China. Dollar also recovered, with help of retreat in gold and further slide in oil prices. Commodity currencies are down in generally with NZD dropping most following disappointing retail sales report released overnight. Dollar's recovery is showing some sign that it might have bottomed out in near term but there isn't solid proof of reversal yet. Meanwhile, there is no change to the near term bullish outlook in yen in general.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0475

Dollar's recovered after falling to 1.0339 (exactly 50% projection of 1.1967-1.0592 measuring from 1.1026) last week suggests consolidation would take place and minor correction to 1.0469-77 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0700 to 1.0339) but resistance at 1.0529 (previous support turned resistance) should hold and bring another decline later. Below said support would extend to 1.0300, however, oversold condition should limit downside to 1.0265/68 (1.236 times projection of 1.0885 to 1.0529 measuring from 1.0708) today and reckon 1.0200 would hold.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Exit Long Entered At 1.6570 And Buy At 1.6460

The British pound retreated after rising to 1.6742 last week, suggesting a temporary top has been formed there and correction to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6541) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying should emerge around 1.6445/55 (previous resistance turned support) and bring another rally. Above 1.6700 would signal pullback has ended and bring retest of 1.6742, then towards 1.6790/00 but reckon 1.6859 (1.618 times projection of 1.6113 to 1.6445 measuring from 1.6322) would hold.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4465

Despite rising to 1.4636 last Friday, the retreat from there suggests a temporary top is possibly formed and consolidation below there would take place and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4483) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.4466/67 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4191 to 1.4636 and previous support), bring another rally and above said resistance would extend gain towards 1.4688 (50% projection of 1.2457-1.4339 measuring from 1.3747), however, weakening of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.4700 and reckon price would falter well below 1.4763 (1.618 times projection of 1.4045 to 1.4407 measuring from 1.4177).

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 91.60

Despite rising to 1.4636 last Friday, the retreat from there suggests a temporary top is possibly formed and consolidation below there would take place and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4483) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.4466/67 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4191 to 1.4636 and previous support), bring another rally and above said resistance would extend gain towards 1.4688 (50% projection of 1.2457-1.4339 measuring from 1.3747), however, weakening of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.4700 and reckon price would falter well below 1.4763 (1.618 times projection of 1.4045 to 1.4407 measuring from 1.4177).

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6620; (P) 1.6681; (R1) 1.6718; More

GBP/USD's break of 1.6588 minor support, with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, suggests that an intraday top is in place. Intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Further break of 1.6454 will suggest that rebound from 1.6111 has completed and flip intraday bias back to the downside again for retreating 1.6111. On the upside, above 1.6740 will bring another rise. But still, as we're still favoring that case that GBP/USD has topped out at 1.7043 already, we'd expect upside to be limited below this 1.7043 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 63.26 64.14 -88 -1.39%
NZDUSD 0.6980 0.7070 -90 -1.29%
AUDJPY 77.62 78.29 -67 -0.86%
AUDUSD 0.8563 0.8632 -69 -0.81%
CADJPY 83.57 84.21 -64 -0.77%

Last Updated: Sep 14, 08:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 14, 08:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Jul -0.50% 0.60% 0.10% -0.10%
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Jul -0.50% 0.50% -0.40% -0.60%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jul F 2.10% 1.90% 1.90%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Jul F -22.70% -22.90% -22.90%
7:15 CHF Combined PPI M/M Aug 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
7:15 CHF Combined PPI Y/Y Aug -5.50% -5.40% -6.10%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q2 -- -0.80%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jul -0.20% -0.60%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Jul -16.70% -17.00%
12:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Rate Q2 65.50% 69.30%
12:35 USD Fed's Duke Speaks to CPA Conference in Washington -- --
16:30 USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Financial Regulation in Charlotte -- --
19:50 USD Fed's Yellen Speaks on Economic Outlook -- --
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