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Thursday, September 10, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-10-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Sterling Sharply Higher after BoE, Yen and Dollar Gathering Strength

Sterling rises sharply after BoE kept interest rates and the quantitative easing program unchanged. Additional boost was found from better than expected house price data. BoE announced that interest rates were kept at record low of 0.50% while the asset purchase program was left unchanged at 175b pounds. Halifax house price index rose for second consecutive month, by 1.8% versus expectation of 1.0%. Year-over-year rate was -10.1%. Two other central banks announced rate decisions today. BoC left rates unchanged at 0.25% and reiterated it's conditional commitment to be on hold until end of Q2 2010. RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and maintained a dovish tone and easing bias in the accompanying statement.

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RBNZ Meeting Review: Staying Dovish Though Recession May Be Ending

The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and maintained a dovish tone and easing bias in the accompanying statement. Regarding economic outlook, the central bank did revise upward its forecasts on both domestic and global growth.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis

The single currency rebounded again after retreating to 1.5404, suggesting further consolidation above 1.5186 and we are keeping our view that low has possibly been formed at 1.5186, so upside bias remains (our indicated upside target at 1.5758, 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6329-1.5186, has already been met), however, a daily close above 1.5892 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) is needed to confirm the e leg of the decline 1.7509 has ended at 1.5186 and bring further rise to 1.6000.

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave Analysis

Aussie unfolds in line with our expectation, the prolonged consolidation ended with an upside break and medium term upmove from 0.6007 low has resumed and is heading towards indicated upside target at 0.8690 (50% projection of wave (i) – (iii) measuring from wave (iv) trough) and possibly towards 0.8800. Having said that, as this move is still viewed as the last leg of larger degree wave C as well as wave (B), upside should be limited to 0.8923 (61.8% projection of wave (i) to (iii) measuring from wave (iv) at 0.7700) and the entire wave C and wave (B) should be capped below 0.9000, bring selloff later in wave (C).

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

GBPJPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Although the British pound dropped to 149.10 last week as anticipated (our indicated downside target was 150.00), as the currency pair found support right above the Kijun-Sen, the recovery from there suggests consolidation would take place and gain to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 155.11) cannot be ruled out, however, if our view that a top has been formed at 163.00 is correct, upside would be limited to 157.69 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 163.00 to 149.10) and bring another decline later. A break of the Kijun-Sen (now at 149.02 and this would also break the support at 149.10) would add credence to our view and test of 146.75 support would follow, then towards the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 144.23).

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GBPCHF Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Although the British pound found support right at the Ichimoku cloud bottom, we are keeping our bearish view that the rise from 1.5122 has formed a temporary top at 1.8114 earlier and downside bias remains for test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.7099) and a weekly close below there would add credence to this bearish scenario and bring further fall to 1.6900, then towards 1.6618/24 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5122 to 1.8114 and previous support) eventually.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6470; (P) 1.6531; (R1) 1.6606; More

GBP/USD's rally resumes today and reaches as high as 1.6662 so far. The break of 1.6622 resistance suggests that fall from 1.7043 has completed at 1.6111 already. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.6111 at 1.6687 and above. On the downside, below 1.6481 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral again. But another rise would be in favor as long as 1.6286 support holds.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPAUD 1.9381 1.9182 +199 +1.03%
GBPCAD 1.8021 1.7839 +182 +1.01%
AUDJPY 78.70 79.34 -64 -0.81%
CADJPY 84.65 85.33 -68 -0.80%
GBPCHF 1.7347 1.7224 +123 +0.71%

Last Updated: Sep 10, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 10, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Aug -8.50% -8.30% -8.50%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jul -9.30% -3.10% 9.70%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders Y/Y Jul -34.80% -31.00% -29.70%
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Sep 3.50% -- 3.50%
01:30 AUD Employment Change Aug -27.1K -14.3K 32.2K 33.6K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Aug 5.80% 5.90% 5.80%
08:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
11:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target (GBP) 175B 175B 175B
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Jul -1.4B 0.1B -0.1B 0.0B
12:30 USD Trade Balance (USD) Jul -32.0B -27.0B -27.0B -27.5B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 550K 552K 570K 576K
13:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 77B 65B
15:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.5M -0.4M
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