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Friday, September 18, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 9-18-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Sterling Dives on Renewed Banking Concern, Dollar Losing Downside Momentum

Sterling falls sharply overnight on renewed concern on the banking sector in UK and remains pressured in early European session. There was news that Lloyds Banking Group was blocked by FSA from quitting the scheme to insure it against credit-related losses and was told that it can only leave the scheme if it can raise a significant amount of fresh capital. The amount of capital required is believed to be "unfeasible". The pound was sold off earlier this week on BoE King's comment that the central bank is considering to lower its deposit rate.

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Special Reports

SNB Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged but will Continue on Currency Intervention

As expected, the SNB decided to leave the 3-month LIBOR target unchanged at 0.25%. However, the central bank has turned slightly more optimistic about the economy and raised its outlook on GDP and inflation.

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BOE May Reduce Deposit Rate. How Does it Work and What are the Impacts?

At the Treasury Select Committee hearing on September 15, the BOE Governor Mervyn King said the MPC is considering lowering the remuneration on banks' reserve. The issue was actually not new as King mentioned about it at the August Inflation report but the BOE did not announce any action at September's meeting. The Governor brought the issue out again may suggest something will be done in coming months and this triggered selloff in sterling. Cable plunged below the 1.65 support before finding support around 1.6425 while EURGBP broke above recent trading range in 0.884 and rose to 0.89. In this article, we will talk about how a change in remuneration rate works and its impact on QE.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0420, O.C.O Buy At 1.0230

Despite falling marginally to 1.0275 yesterday, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent recovery suggest further consolidation would be seen and minor correction to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0350) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.0420-25 (also the current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom), bring another decline later to 1.0265/68 (1.236 times projection of 1.0885 to 1.0529 measuring from 1.0708), then 1.0230 (approx. 50% projection of 1.0700 to 1.0322 measuring from 1.0420). However, oversold condition would limit downside and reckon 1.0200 would hold, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6450

Despite rebounding to 1.6569 yesterday, the British pound met renewed selling right at the Kijun-Sen and dropped sharply from there on active cross-selling and the break of 1.6403 support confirms the decline from 1.6742 has resumed and further fall towards 1.6288 is likely, however, near term oversold condition would limit downside to 1.6230 (100% projection of 1.6742 to 1.6403 measuring from 1.6569) and bring another bounce later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4570

As resistance at 1.4768 has continued to hold, the retreat from there suggests further consolidation would take place and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4641) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around support at 1.4561 and the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.4538) would hold, bring another rally. Above said resistance would extend towards 1.4790 (61.8% projection of 1.4191 to 1.4636 measuring from 1.4515) but reckon 1.4850/60 would cap upside and bring a long overdue correction later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Exit Short Entered At 91.60

Although the greenback retreated after meeting offers right at the Ichimoku cloud bottom and fall to the Kijun-Sen (now at 90.88) is likely, only break of yesterday's low at 90.52 would retain bearishness for recent decline to resume for retest of 90.12, then option barrier at 90.00. However, loss of downward momentum would limit downside to 89.44-50 (approx. 1.236 times projection of 95.07 to 91.94 measuring from 93.31).

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8915; (P) 0.8943; (R1) 0.8987; More.

EUR/GBP's rally resumes after brief consolidation and took out mentioned 38.2% retracement of 0.9799 to 0.8399 at 0.8934 decisively. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9799 to 0.8399 at 0.9264 next after taking out 0.9 psychological level. On the downside, below 0.8954 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring retreat but consolidation should be relatively brief as long as 0.8881 support holds.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 148.75 149.82 -107 -0.72%
GBPUSD 1.6340 1.6450 -110 -0.67%
AUDJPY 78.95 79.42 -47 -0.60%
AUDUSD 0.8677 0.8726 -49 -0.56%
CADJPY 85.15 85.52 -37 -0.43%

Last Updated: Sep 18, 07:00 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 18, 07:00 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
5:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report -- --
6:00 EUR German PPI M/M Aug 0.50% 0.10% -1.50%
6:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Aug -6.90% -7.20% -7.80%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jul -4.3B -5.3B
8:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Aug 17.6B 8.0B
8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Aug P 0.80% 1.50%
8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Aug P 13.80% 14.50%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jul 0.70% 0.60%
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