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Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 9-16-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar at New Low on Rally in Stocks and Gold

Dollar weakness resumes and made a new low against Euro on the back of rally resumption in US stocks and Gold. S&P 500 closed at new 2009 high of 1052, supported by comments from Warren Buffett that he's buying stocks. Gold also soared to new high of 1017.8 after completing a brief consolidation. Dollar index dipped through 76.47 support and reached as low as 76.41 so far. However, dollar's weakness is not translated to other pairs as AUD/USD is still trading below last week's high of 0.8674. USD/CAD and USD/JPY are also way above last week's low. Nevertheless, as gold is expected to continue it's rally to test 1033.9 high, dollar will remain pressured in near term.

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Special Reports

FX Forecasts Update: USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF

Improved market sentiment and favors towards risky assets pressured the dollar over the past month. Although USD's decline against major currencies looked excessive, investors remained hesitant to remove the bearish view on USD. The general themes on the dollar remain to be interest rate differential, increasing appetite to higher-yield investments and reserve diversification. These topics will likely render the dollar chronically weak in the near-term.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6600

The British pound dropped sharply yesterday as indicated in our previous update on renewed cross-selling in sterling especially versus euro, suggesting the rise from 1.6113 has ended at 1.6742 earlier and although cable has recovered from 1.6403, as long as resistance at 1.6661 holds, mild downside bias is for correction of this upmove towards 1.6353 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom as well as 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6113 to 1.6742) but reckon support at 1.6322 would hold from here.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4550, O.C.O. Sell At 1.4750

As the single currency has risen after finding renewed buying at 1.4561, suggesting recent upmove remains in progress and gain towards 1.4738/40 (approx. 50% projection of 1.4191 to 1.4636 measuring from 1.4515) is likely, however, overbought condition would prevent sharp move beyond 1.4763 (1.618 times projection of 1.4045 to 1.4407 measuring from 1.4177) and bring a correction later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Exit Long Entered At 90.60

The greenback retreated sharply partly due to the comments from Japan Finance Minister Fujii that current FX moves are not rapid and the admin is opposed to forex intervention if moves are gradual, he also stated that a strong yen has certain advantages on Japanese economy. This fall has dampened our near term bullishness and a retest of recent low at 90.18 cannot be ruled out, below would extend to psychological support at 90.00, however, reckon downside would be limited to 89.44-50 (approx. 1.236 times projection of 95.07 to 91.94 measuring from 93.31).

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Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0450, O.C.O Buy At 1.0230

As dollar has fallen again after yesterday's brief recovery to 1.0420, suggesting recent decline remains in progress and fall to 1.0265/68 (1.236 times projection of 1.0885 to 1.0529 measuring from 1.0708) is likely, however, 1.0230 (approx. 50% projection of 1.0700 to 1.0322 measuring from 1.0420) would limit downside and attract profit-taking, bring rebound later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8808; (P) 0.8853; (R1) 0.8935; More.

EUR/GBP's rally extends further to as high as 0.8929 today, inch below mentioned target of 38.2% retracement of 0.9799 to 0.8399 at 0.8934. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 0.8879 minor support holds and further rally should still be seen. As noted before, sustained trading above 0.8934 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.9264 next. On the downside, below 0.8879 will suggest that an intraday top is in place and probably bring pull back to 0.8837 resistance turned support. But downside should be contained above 0.8722 support and bring rally resumption.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 149.02 150.11 -109 -0.73%
NZDUSD 0.7098 0.7047 +51 +0.72%
USDJPY 90.41 91.04 -63 -0.70%
GBPAUD 1.8966 1.9091 -125 -0.66%
AUDUSD 0.8689 0.8633 +56 +0.64%

Last Updated: Sep 16, 07:30 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 16, 07:30 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:00 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Jul 1.10% -- 0.70% 0.90%
7:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jul 0.70% 0.90%
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Change Aug 25.0K 24.9K
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Aug 5.00% 4.90%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jul 8.00% 7.80%
9:00 CHF ZEW Expectations Sep -- 18.6
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Aug 0.30% -0.70%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Aug -0.20% -0.20%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Aug 1.20% 1.30%
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jul -- 1.90%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Aug 0.30% 0.00%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Aug -1.70% -2.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Aug 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Aug 1.40% 1.50%
12:30 USD Current Account Balance Q2 -$92.0B -$101.5B
13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Jul 65.3B 90.7B
13:15 USD Industrial Production Aug 0.70% 0.50%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Aug 69.10% 68.50%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.6M -5.9M
17:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Sep 19 18
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