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Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-1-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Sentiments Lift as ISM Back above 50, Dollar in Range

Markets Sentiments are lifted by better than expected ISM manufacturing index. Stocks open higher and extends early strength with DOW reaches as high as 9557 so far. Crude oil follows by rebound back to above 71 after dipping to as low as 69.53 earlier today. Meanwhile, gold also recovers mildly to above 958. On the other hand, dollar and yen are generally lower following the release even though they both bounded in range against major currencies.

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Special Report

GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis

The British pound met renewed selling interest at 1.6625 and fell again last week to as low as 1.6153 in line with our expectation and we are keeping our bearish count that wave (v) has formed a top at 1.7044. However, the recovery from 1.6153 suggests consolidation would be seen but upside should be limited to 1.6500 and resistance at 1.6625 should hold, bring another decline. Below said support would extend the decline from 1.7044 to 1.6000, however, a daily close below 1.5983 support is needed to add credence to our view and bring stronger correction towards 1.5802 support and then 1.5690 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 1.3500 to 1.7044).limited

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GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

The British pound has continued to move lower last week as expected (our indicated downside target at 152.96 has been met), suggesting the second c leg of the wave 4 from 118.87 has possibly ended at 163.00 earlier and consolidation with downside bias remains for further decline, a daily close below 150.00/10 would add credence to our bearish count and bring test of 146.75 support later.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

GBPUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

As the British pound continued to move lower last week to 1.6153, retaining our view that a temporary top has been formed at 1.7044 (where a shooting star candlestick pattern was formed) and further consolidation below there would take place with downside bias for correction of recent upmove towards1.5983 support and later 1.5721 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4398 to 1.7044). Having said that, price should stay well above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5349) and stage a strong rebound from there later this month.

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USDCHF Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Last week's anticipated resumption of decline suggests the fall from 1.1967 is still in progress and weakness to indicated downside target at 1.0436-51 (1.618 times projection of 1.1967-1.1160 measuring from 1.1742 and 50% projection of 1.1742-1.0592 measuring from 1.1026 respectively) is under way. However, it is necessary to see a drop below chart support at 1.0370 to signal the entire decline from 1.2298 has resumed towards 1.0100 but the greenback shall stay well above the psychological support at 1.0000.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6201; (P) 1.6265; (R1) 1.6350; More

Intraday outlook in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6152 continues. Nevertheless, it should be near to completion. Break of 1.6152 will bring resumption of fall from 1.7043 and should target 1.5983 key support next. On the upside, while another rise cannot be ruled out, recovery should be limited below 1.6622 resistance and bring fall resumption finally.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDUSD 0.8392 0.8436 -44 -0.52%
AUDJPY 78.16 78.54 -38 -0.49%
EURAUD 1.7060 1.6985 +75 +0.44%
AUDCAD 0.9188 0.9225 -37 -0.40%
GBPCHF 1.7184 1.7245 -61 -0.35%

Last Updated: Sep 01, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 01, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
04:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
05:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q2 -0.30% -0.90% -0.80% -0.90%
05:45 CHF GDP Y/Y Q2 -2.00% -3.00% -2.40%
06:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.70% 0.70% -1.80% -1.30%
07:30 CHF SVME-PMI Aug 50.2 47.1 44.3
07:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Aug F 49.2 49 49
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Aug -1K 30K -6K -5K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Aug 8.30% 8.40% 8.30%
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Aug F 48.2 47.9 47.9
08:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Aug 49.7 51.5 50.8 50.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jul 9.50% 9.50% 9.40%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Aug 52.9 50.1 48.9
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Aug 65 57 55
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jul 3.20% 1.60% 3.60%
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jul -0.20% -0.20% 0.30% 0.10%
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