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Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 9-9-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar Recovers Mildly as Gold Consolidates, Aussie Lower after Retail Sales

Dollar recovers mildly after yesterday's selloff as gold consolidates around 1000 level while crude oil's rebound lost some steam after breaking 71 level. Asian stocks pare some of yesterday's gain while European stocks open generally lower. Commodity currencies are very volatile. Canadian dollar was the first to retreat yesterday on poor housing data. Australian dollar also dipped sharply in Asian session after disappointing retail sales dampened hope for rate hike before end of the year. Sterling also follows the retreat against dollar even though consumer confidence rose to highest level in more than a year in August.

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Special Reports

Central Banks Previews - RBNZ, BoE, BoC

The Bank of Canada should probably leave the overnight rate unchanged at 0.25% for the 5th consecutive month. Economic developments in recent month have been consistent with or modestly better than the central bank's expectation. GDP contracted -3.4% qoq in 2Q09 after a downwardly revised -6.1% qoq decline in the previous quarter. This was inline the central bank's forecast of a -3.5% decline. However, payrolls unexpectedly increased +21.1K in August after falling -44.5K in the prior month while consumer spending also improved. With the worst of recession seems to be in rear mirror, we do not see the needs for additional unconventional measures.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0515

The greenback tumbled to a fresh 2009 low of 1.0432 yesterday and price is still trading well below the Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting recent decline remains in progress for weakness to 1.0400 and even towards previous chart support at 1.0370. However, oversold condition would limit downside and 1.0339 (50% projection of 1.1967-1.0592 measuring from 1.1026) would hold from here.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.6455

The British pound surged to as high as 1.6590 yesterday on dollar's broad-based weakness, suggesting the rise from 1.6113 low is still in progress and may extend to 1.6625 chart resistance, above there would bring headway towards 1.6654 (100% projection of 1.6113-1.6445 measuring from 1.6322), however, upside is likely to be limited to 1.6688 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.7044 to 1.6113) and bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4435

As the single currency traded narrowly after rallying to 1.4535 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation would take place but downside should be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.4432) and bring another upmove, above said resistance would extend towards 1.4590/00, however, overbought condition would limit upside to 1.4646 (61.8% projection of 1.2885-1.4339 measuring from 1.3747) and risk from there has increased for a retreat later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Exit Long Entered At 92.30

Although the greenback has recovered after falling to 92.04 yesterday, dollar’s broad-based weakness versus European currencies suggests downside risk remains for a retest of recent low at 91.94, however, only break there would signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 91.73, then 91.20/30 before prospect of another rebound.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8542; (P) 0.8599; (R1) 0.8672; More

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top is in place in AUD/USD at 0.8659. Some consolidation should now be seen with risk of pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.8455). But downside should be contained well above 0.8239 support and bring rally resumption. Recent breakout suggests that whole medium term rally from 0.6008 has resumed. Above 0.8659 should target 61.8% projection of 0.6284 to 0.8262 from 0.7702 at 0.8924 next.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURAUD 1.6878 1.6802 +76 +0.45%
AUDUSD 0.8578 0.8614 -36 -0.42%
NZDUSD 0.6937 0.6958 -21 -0.30%
GBPAUD 1.9184 1.9135 +49 +0.26%
AUDJPY 79.32 79.51 -19 -0.24%

Last Updated: Sep 08, 13:15 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 09, 08:25 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence Aug 63 62 60 61
1:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Jul -1.00% 0.60% -1.40% -0.80%
1:00 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Sep 5.20% -- 3.70%
5:00 JPY Leading Indicators Jul P 83 81.9 79.9 80.9
6:00 EUR German CPI M/M Aug F 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
6:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Aug F 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8:30 GBP Trade Balance (GBP) Jul -6.275B -6.451B
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Aug 136.5K 132.1K
18:00 USD Fed's Beige Book -- --
21:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%
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