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Friday, September 11, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-11-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Still Under Pressure against Yen but Recovers Elsewhere

Dollar is trying to recover against European majors, with little help from weakness in yen crosses. Gold resumes recent up trend and breaks 1010 level while crude oil spikes higher to 72.9. Stocks open higher with DOW and S&P 500 making new highs. But after all, momentum of the financial markets are mild as the week is close to an end. Commodity currencies continue to lag behind on the supposed 'risk seeking' sentiments. On the other hand, the Japanese yen climbs further together with falling treasury yields. USD/JPY remains under tremendous pressure.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Although the single currency rebounded after early fall to 131.01 to 134.41, as euro has retreated from there, suggesting consolidation would take place and weakness to 131.70/75 cannot be ruled out, however, only below there would signal the wave ii from 138.72 is still in progress for retest of 131.01, then to 130.56 (50% projection of 138.72-131.01, measuring from 134.41) but reckon 129.65 (61.8% projection) should limit downside and bring a strong rebound later this month.

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USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

The greenback finally broke below indicated support at 1.0370 on dollar's broad-based weakness, suggesting the b wave from 1.2298 is still in progress, this b leg is now unfolding as an (a)-(b)-(c) and further fall towards 1.0176 (61.8% projection of 1.1967 to 1.0529 measuring from 1.1026) is likely, however, psychological support at 1.0000 (also just below the 100% projection of (a) leg at 1.0039 and chart support at 1.0011) should limit downside.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

EURCAD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Although the single currency rebounded after finding renewed buying interest at 1.5365 and further consolidation above 1.5186 support is likely, only a weekly close above the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 1.6114-29) would signal the decline from 1.7509 has ended at 1.5186 and bring stronger rebound to 1.6329 (where a doji star was formed). Once this resistance is penetrated, this would add credence to this view and extend gain to 1.6500, then 1.6622 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.7509 to 1.5186).

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EURJPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Despite falling to 131.01 last week, as the single currency found decent demand right at the Kijun-Sen and has recovered, suggesting further consolidation within recent established range of 127.00-139.26 would take place and rebound to 135.00 and possibly 136.05/10 cannot be ruled out, however, upside should be limited to resistance at 138.72 should hold. Only break of this level would signal the rise from 112.08 low has resumed for retest of 139.26, then 141.03 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 169.97-112.08 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top).

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 91.33; (P) 91.79; (R1) 92.18; More.

USD/JPY falls further to as low as 90.60 in early US session, touching mentioned target of 100% projection of 98.87 to 91.73 from 97.77 at 90.63 as expected. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 91.22 minor resistance holds. Further decline could now be seen to lower trend line support at 89.17. On the upside, above 91.22 will turn intraday outlook and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited by 91.94/93.29 resistance zone and bring fall resumption.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 78.27 79.23 -96 -1.23%
EURJPY 132.20 133.74 -154 -1.16%
CADJPY 84.16 85.14 -98 -1.16%
USDJPY 90.67 91.72 -105 -1.16%
CHFJPY 87.33 88.31 -98 -1.12%

Last Updated: Sep 11, 14:15 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 11, 14:15 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q2 F 0.60% 0.90% 0.90%
23:50 JPY GDP Annualized Q2 F 2.30% 3.70% 3.70%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 F 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
05:00 JPY Households Confidence Aug 40.1 41.1 39.4
06:00 EUR GermanWPI M/M Aug 0.70% 0.30% -0.50%
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Aug 2.20% 0.90% -1.40%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Aug -7.50% -8.40% -12.20%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Aug 0.20% 0.30% 0.30% 0.20%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Aug -0.40% -0.50% -1.30%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Aug 0.70% 0.80% 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jul 0.30% -0.10% -0.20%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Aug 2.00% 1.00% -0.70%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Sep P 70.2 67.3 65.7
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jul -1.40% -1.00% -1.70%
18:00 USD Federal Budget Aug -$174.0B -$111.9B
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