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Friday, September 4, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 9-4-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar in Range, Employment Data in Focus

Dollar is staying in familiar range as traders are awaiting the closely watched Non-Farm Payroll report from US today. After all the market moving events this week, markets are still indecisive on giving the greenback a breakout from recent consolidations. While gold reached as high as 999.5 yesterday, commodities are generally soft with CRB index staying below 250 level while crude oil also stays below 70. VIX also dropped sharply yesterday after spiking to 29.57 on Wednesday with recovery in global stocks. The NFP would be the determining factor in the long awaited breakout.

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Special Reports

Event To Watch - US Non-Farm Payrolls

US Non-Farm Payrolls August: US' non-farm payrolls probably dropped -225K in august compared with a reduction of -247K in the prior month. Although the decline remained rather sharp, the pace of contraction has slowed down. Over the week, the employment data we received were mildly positive. Both ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment index improved while Chellenger reported reduction in layoff in August after rising in the previous month.

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ECB Meeting - September: Remained Cautious On Economic Recovery

The ECB announced to keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%, inline with market expectation. While slightly revised up economic forecasts, the current interest rate will stay low for a long period of time and there's no plan to exit from the non-standard measures soon.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0690

As dollar rebounded after falling to 1.0545 yesterday, suggesting further consolidation above recent low at 1.0529 would take place and although recovery to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0656) cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited to key resistance area at 1.0708-17, bring another decline later. A break of recent low at 1.0529 would signal decline has once again resumed and extend to 1.0500 but reckon 1.0451 (50% projection of 1.1742 to 1.0592 measuring from 1.1026) would hold from here and bring another rebound later.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.6225

Cable's rise to 1.6415 yesterday suggests a temporary low has possibly been formed at 1.6113 and few days of consolidation above this level would take place with mild upside bias but it is necessary to see a clear break of said resistance to add credence to this view and bring correction of recent decline to 1.6429 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6625 to 1.6113) and later towards 1.6469 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.7044 to 1.6113).

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Stand Aside

Although the single currency dropped from yesterday's high of 1.4350 to 1.4235 this morning, as price has found support right at the Ichimoku cloud bottom as suggested in our previous update and has rebounded, suggesting further choppy consolidation would take place. A break of 1.4350 would extend gain towards 1.4407, however, only above resistance at 1.4448 would signal medium term upmove has resumed to 1.4490/00.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 93.80

The greenback's rebound after falling to 91.94 yesterday just tested the Kijun-Sen and further consolidation above this support is expected. Although minor correction to 93.45 is likely, renewed selling should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 93.79) and bring another decline later. Below said support would extend decline to 91.73, however, weakening of downward momentum should limit downside to 91.40/50 and 90.92 (100% projection of 95.07 to 92.54 measuring from 93.45) would hold.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0965; (P) 1.1019; (R1) 1.1073; More.

USD/CAD's sideway trading from 1.1101 is still in progress and intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. The question remains on whether price actions from 1.0631 are reversing the larger down trend, or are they merely consolidations. On the downside, below 1.0870 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside first and break there will indicate that the decline from 1.3063 is likely still in progress for another low below 1.0631 before completion. On the upside, break of 1.1123 resistance, which will then have falling trendline resistance decisively broken, will confirm that whole rally from 1.0631 has resumed and affirm the case that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 1.1723 resistance next.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 63.34 62.73 +61 +0.96%
NZDUSD 0.6830 0.6772 +58 +0.85%
AUDNZD 1.2316 1.2390 -74 -0.60%
CADJPY 84.33 84.04 +29 +0.34%
GBPJPY 151.66 151.14 +52 +0.34%

Last Updated: Sep 04, 07:55 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 04, 07:55 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q2 -21.70% -22.90% -25.30%
7:15 CHF CPI M/M Aug 0.10% 0.20% -0.70%
7:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Aug -0.80% -0.70% -1.20%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Aug -20.0K -44.5K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Aug 8.80% 8.60%
12:30 USD Non-Farm Payrolls Aug -225K -247K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Aug 9.50% 9.40%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Aug 54 51.8
G20 Meeting in London -- --
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