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Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 9-2-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar and Yen to Strengthen Further, Focus on Eurozone GDP and US ADP

Dollar and yen retreat mildly from overnight strong rebound but the case for further strength continues to build up. DOW took out 9450 near tem support level and dived nearly -2% to close at 9310 last week and indicated that last week's high of 9630 is at least a short term top. Nikkei's sharp fall today sent the index -2.37% lower to close at 10280 also argues that this week's high of 10767 is at least a short term top too. CRB commodity index also dropped through 250 level resume the whole fall from 269.18 and is set to take on 240 level next. Yield on 10 year note also resumed recent decline and took out 3.4 level to close at 3.375. The developments are all supportive to further rise in dollar and yen. The major market moving factors to be watched today will be Eurozone GDP revision as well as US ADP employment report.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6260

The British pound dropped below recent low at 1.6153 yesterday to as low as 1.6113 on active cross-selling especially against Japanese yen and although cable has recovered from 1.6113 and retracement to the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen now at 1.6245 and 1.6248 respectively) cannot be ruled out, price should falter well below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.6329) and bring another selloff. Below said support would extend to 1.6090/00, however, reckon chart support at 1.6033 would hold on first testing.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 93.80

Despite intra-day break of 92.54 on risk aversion, lack of follow through selling and current recovery suggests consolidation would take place and test of Kijun-Sen (now at 93.30) cannot be ruled out, however, upside should be limited to 93.80 and 94.08/16 (previous resistance and the current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom) should hold and bring another decline later to 92.37 (61.8% projection of 97.79-93.42 measuring from 95.07) and then 92.00, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to chart support at 91.73.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Exit Long Entered At 1.4230 And Sell At 1.4300

The single currency dropped sharply yesterday to as low as 1.4177 on risk aversion, this break of the flat ground Ichimoku cloud bottom confirms the rise from 1.4045 has ended at 1.4407 and although price has recovered from 1.4177, upside should be limited to 1.4285-92 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and Kijun-Sen) and bring another decline to 1.4140/50, however, as euro is expected to gyrate within recent range of 1.4045-1.4448, said lower level should remain intact.

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Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Exit Short Entered At 1.0680 And Buy At 1.0580

Dollar's rebound yesterday turned out to be stronger than expecting and although price has retreated after faltering below resistance at 1.0717, this move suggests a temporary low has possibly been formed at 1.0529 earlier and consolidation with upside bias is seen but a sustain break above 1.0708-17 resistance area is needed to confirm this view and bring further gain towards 1.0749 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0885 to 1.0529) and later towards 1.0800 but resistance at 1.0834 should hold from here.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6054; (P) 1.6215; (R1) 1.6317; More

GBP/USD's break of 1.6152 suggests that whole decline from 1.7043 has resumed. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen to 1.5983 key support next. On the upside, though, above 1.6265 minor resistance will indicate that consolidations from 1.6152 is possibly still in progress and another test of 1.6374 resistance would be seen before resuming fall from 1.7043.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPAUD 1.9453 1.9555 -102 -0.52%
EURAUD 1.7138 1.7215 -77 -0.45%
AUDNZD 1.2279 1.2226 +53 +0.43%
AUDCAD 0.9157 0.9119 +38 +0.41%
AUDUSD 0.8292 0.8260 +32 +0.39%

Last Updated: Sep 02, 07:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 02, 07:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q2 0.60% 0.20% 0.40% 0.40%
1:30 AUD GDP Y/Y Q2 0.60% 0.30% 0.40%
8:30 GBP PMI Construction Aug 48 47
9:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 P -0.10% -0.10%
9:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q2 P -4.70% -4.60%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jul -0.80% 0.30%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jul -8.50% -6.60%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Aug -- -5.70%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Aug -250K -371K
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q2 F 6.20% 6.40%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q2 F -5.50% -5.80%
14:00 USD Factory Orders Jul 1.80% 0.40%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.5M 0.2M
18:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes -- --
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