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Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 9-8-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar Sharply Lower as Gold Breaks 1000, EUR/USD Upside Breakout?

Dollar weakens sharply today on the back of exceptional strength in precious metals. Gold future break 1007.1 psychological level in Asia today and reaches as high as 1006.4 so far. Meanwhile Silver future also climbs more than 3% to as high as 16.85. The greenback continues to make new low against Aussie and Kiwi and is set to break out from range against Euro and Swissy. Asian stocks are generally higher with Nikkei up another day by 0.7%. However, yen is steadily in range in crosses so far, helped by weakness in USD/JPY. Crude oil recovers mildly but is still limited below 70 level. As noted before, Gold is likely resuming its long term up trend and will continue to pressure the greenback. But the selling might be, to a certain extent, limited unless crude oil does rebound strongly from its medium term trend line support and roars back above 70.

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Special Reports

UK Data to Watch - Industrial Production, Trade Balance, PPI

(Sep 8, Tue) UK Industrial Production - July: Industrial production is expected to have risen +0.2% mom in July after increasing +0.5% in the prior month. In July, manufacturing PMI surged to 50.1 with the output component rising to 54.3, almost a 1-year high. Moreover, car scrappage program across Europe also helped boost auto production. On annual basis, the decline should also have moderated to -10.1%, compared with -1.1% in June.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0620

The greenback has fallen again after brief recovery yesterday, suggesting recent fall would resume for retest of 1.0529, a break below this support would confirm decline has resumed and would extend weakness to 1.0500, then towards 1.0451 (50% projection of 1.1742 to 1.0592 measuring from 1.1026). Having said that, downside should limited due to oversold condition and chart support at 1.0370 should hold from here.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.6300

Cable has rebounded after finding renewed buying at 1.6322 this morning, however, break of 1.6445 resistance is needed to confirm the rise from 1.6113 low has resumed and extend to 1.6469 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.7044 to 1.6113) and possibly towards 1.6500. However, reckon 1.6579 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would hold from here due to overbought condition and bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 92.30

Although the currency pair slipped on dollar's broad-based weakness and fall towards 92.27 support (Friday's low) cannot be ruled out, however, as long as recent low at 91.94 holds, further consolidation would take place and mild upside bias remains for another rebound to 93.31-45 resistance area. Above there would confirm low has been formed and bring correction of recent decline to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 93.79), then 94.08 and later towards 94.37 50% Fibonacci retracement of 96.80 to 91.94) but resistance at 95.07 should remain intact.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4300

As the single currency has risen after finding renewed buying interest right at the Tenkan-Sen, suggesting a retest of recent high at 1.4448 is under way, above there would confirm medium term upmove has resumed and extend to 1.4474 (50% projection of 1.2885 to 1.4339 measuring from 1.3747), then 1.4500. Having said that, overbought condition would limit upside to 1.4550 and risk from there has increased for a retreat later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4299; (P) 1.4330; (R1) 1.4362; More

EUR/USD rises sharply to as high as 1.4396 today so far and is set to take on 1.4405 resistance. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment. Break of 1.4405 will indicate that whole rise from 1.4045 is resuming for 1.4446 and above. But we'd expect further loss of momentum and upside should be limited by upper trend line resistance at 1.4504 and bring reversal. On the downside, below 1.4328 will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Further break of 1.4177 support will favor the case that rebound from 1.4045 has completed at 1.4405 already. In such case, intraday bias will be flipped back to the downside for 1.4045 low next.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
USDJPY 92.46 93.05 -59 -0.64%
USDCAD 1.0728 1.0778 -50 -0.47%
EURUSD 1.4390 1.4330 +60 +0.42%
AUDUSD 0.8588 0.8555 +33 +0.38%
USDCHF 1.0558 1.0598 -40 -0.38%

Last Updated: Sep 08, 07:35 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Sep 08, 07:35 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Aug -0.10% -- 1.80%
23:50 JPY Current Account Total (JPY) Jul 1.16T 1.41T 1.80T
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Aug 2.80% 2.70% 2.70%
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Aug 18 -- 10
5:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Aug 41.7 43 42.4
5:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Aug 4.00% 4.10% 3.90%
6:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jul 13.9B 11.3B 12.2B 12.1B
6:00 EUR German Current Account (EUR) Jul 11.0B 10.0B 13.3B 13.5B
8:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jul 0.20% 0.50%
8:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jul -10.10% -11.10%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jul 0.30% 0.40%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jul -11.10% -11.70%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production s.a. M/M Jul 1.60% -0.10%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jul 0.50% 1.00%
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