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Mid-Day Report: Risk Rally Extends on US GDP, Dollar Decline AcceleratesThe EU summit triggered risk rally continues throughout European session and boosted European stocks broadly higher, with DAX and CAC up more than 5% while FTSE is up 3% at the time of writing. US Q3 GDP would likely add more fuel to the rally as the report showed 2.5% annualized growth, inline with consensus. That's nearly double of Q2's 1.3% and was much stronger than H1's 0.9% annualized. Initial jobless claims dropped slightly but remained elevated at 402k though. Dollar index's decline accelerates further on risk appetite and breaks 75.5 handle. The greenback remains weak against most major currencies as Swiss Franc and Yen also catch up and break recent high. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0385; (P) 1.0440; (R1) 1.0484; More AUD/USD jumps further to as high as 1.0660 in early US session and remains firm. Near term outlook is still bullish. As noted before, correction from 1.1079 has completed with three waves down to 0.9387 already. Intraday bias now remains on the upside for 1.0764 first and break will target a test on record high at 1.1079. On the downside, below 1.0564 minor support will turn bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained by 1.0321 support and bring another rise. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
EU Leaders Made Some Agreements, But Many Still UnresolvedAs indicated in the post-summit statement, EU leaders have agreed on a series of measures to contain the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. In short, the measures can be categorized into term funding and capitalization of banks. While the measures generally matched with market expected and should provide supports in the financial markets in the near-term, the summit has yet to clarify questions such as EFSF leverage, Greece' s PSI scheme and political commitments regarding Italy's reform. Therefore, we retain out cautious view toward the debt problems in the region. RBNZ Leaves OCR Unchanged At 2.5% As Outlook Masked By European CrisisThe RBNZ left the OCR at 2.5% in October, citing downsides risks on global and domestic economic outlooks as driven by the European sovereign debt crisis. Policymakers worried that the country’s commodity export prices will be hurt and funding cost will increase over the coming year. Yet, the central bank maintained the tightening bias that ‘gradually increasing pressure on domestic resources will require future OCR increases’. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency rallied throughout European session on the back of EU leaders' agreement and slightly better-than-expected eurozone data, more stops and barriers at 1.4050, 1.4070 and 1.4100 were all triggered, not much offers are left on the upside. Middle East names were seen buying euro aggressively and bids from them are still noted at 1.4050 and 1.4000-10 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.3970-80. On the upside, light offers are tipped at 1.4150 and another barrier is located at 1.4200 with more stops seen above there. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3945As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after breaking psychological resistance at 1.4000, suggesting recent upmove from 1.3145 is still in progress and further gain to 1.4080 and possibly 1.4100 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.4115-20 (100% projection of 1.3656-1.3976 measuring from 1.3798) and reckon 1.4145/50 would hold Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 105.35Although the single currency slipped to 104.77 yesterday, as euro failed to break the support sustainably and price staged a quick rebound from there, suggesting low is possibly formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for further gain to 107.00, then towards resistance at 107.68. Looking ahead, it is necessary to see a breach of this level to confirm the rise form 100.77 low (end of wave v) has resumed and extend gain to 108.01Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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