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Mid-Day Report: Euro Steady as ECB Met Expectations, Sterling Dives as BoE Expands QEEuro remains firm against dollar after ECB left rates unchanged at 1.5% today. At his last post meeting pressing conference, Trichet noted that there are "intensified downside risks" in the eurozone economy. And thus, the bank has decided to conduct two longer-term refinancing operations, or LTROs, one with 12 months maturity in October and another with 13 months maturity in December. Also, the bank will restart buying covered bonds backed by assets including mortgages and public sector loans. That was exactly what the markets have been expecting and thus, triggered little reactions. Meanwhile, sentiments are generally supported by comments from EC president Barroso that there will be European level close coordination on ensuring stability in the banking sector. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5406; (P) 1.5449; (R1) 1.5505; More. GBP/USD's consolidation was brief and it dives through 1.5327 support to as low as 1.5271 so far. Recent decline has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside for 161.8% projection of 1.6746 to 1.5780 from 1.6618 at 1.5055 next. On the upside, above 1.5501 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.5714 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming, or near term outlook will remain bearish. |
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| Special Report |
BOE Increases Asset Bond Purchases to 275B PoundThe BOE surprised the market by increasing the bond purchase program by +75B pound to 275B pound in response to the dramatic deterioration in global economic outlook. The Bank rate was kept at 0.5%, though. The central bank was in a dilemma on whether to tighten or to ease as the UK’s economy has been torn between dismal growth and high inflation. Reactivation of bond purchases was based on the belief that inflation will undershoot the 2% target in the medium-term due to 'the deterioration in the outlook’. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound tumbled in London session as BOE increased the size of QE from GBP 200 bln to GBP 275 bln, cable dropped sharply to 1.5270, the lowest level since July 2010. Stops below 1.5390 and 1.5320-30 were triggered, bids and option barrier at 1.5300 were also cleared, however, some bids from real money accounts are noted at 1.5270 and also 1.5250 (good size with option barrier) with bigger bids seen at 1.5190-00. On the upside, offers from various parties (including UK banks) are lined up from 1.5350 up to 1.5400 with some light stops seen above 1.5400 but more selling interest should emerge around 1.5450-60. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5380Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.5502, the subsequent selloff from there and the breach of previous support at 1.5326 confirm recent decline has finally resumed and further weakness to 1.5270 (61.8% projection of 1.5716-1.5340 measuring from 1.5502) and then 1.5250, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.5190 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4228-1.6747) and risk from there has increased for a rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 101.65Euro’s rebound after falling to 100.77 earlier this week suggests a temporary low has possibly been formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to 103.00 and possibly towards 103.30/35 but break of this previous support is needed to confirm and bring retracement to 103.90/00. Having said that, resistance at 104.96 (previous 4th of a lesser degree) should limit upside and bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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