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Daily Report: Euro Off as Greece Decision Delayed Again, Aussie Down as RBA Turned DovishEuro extends recent decline broadly after the six-hours EU finance ministers meeting in Luxemburg yielded few concrete conclusion on the Greece and the measures to contain European debt crisis. Belgian Finance Minister Reynders noted that they're informed by Greece that funds will have to be made available in "mid-November" and EU will now wait for the report from troika to decide on release the next tranche of bailout fund. Nonetheless, EU President Juncker later assured that there's "no one advocating a default for Greece" and it will be avoided. Focus will turn to next meeting on October 13 and it's still doubtful whether the decision will be delayed once again. Meanwhile, the finance ministers are also reviewing the size of private sector involvement in the second bailout for Greece, |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 100.19; (P) 101.70; (R1) 102.47; More EUR/JPY's fall is still in progress and reaches as low as 100.74 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 100 psychological level. Break will target 200% projection of 123.31 to 113.41 from 117.74 at 97.94 next. On the upside, above 102.22 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 104.92 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. |
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| Special Report |
RBA Turns Dovish, Rate Cut Stance LoomsAs expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. Yet the post-meeting statement came in more dovish than the previous one. Governor Glenn Stevens downplayed impacts of recent deterioration US and European outlook. Nevertheless, it now appears more likely that the central bank will consider a rate cut in coming months if inflation is under control. We retain our view that a rate cut will be carried out in the fourth quarter. China Watch: Rebound In PMI Alleviates Hard Landing ConcernsChina's manufacturing PMI climbed for a second consecutive month, by +0.3 points, to 51.2 in September, reversing the declining trend formed since March. The report suggested China's manufacturing activities have stabilized modestly and should alleviate some concerns on a hard landing. However, the seasonally-adjusted picture appeared less rosy with the index falling to 51.3 from 51.7 in August. The index compiled by HSBC PMI was revised higher to 49.9, same as Augusts' reading and staying below the expansion-contraction threshold of 50. Therefore, investors should not turn too optimistic about the country's manufacturing sector yet. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The Japanese yen surged yesterday in part due to risk aversion and although MOF’s Nakao came out and commented that yen should not be regarded as safe haven currency, yen remained firm across the board. With Nikkei 225 approaching recent low, focus is definitely on the downside but bids are still seen at 76.50 (the level was tested several times with overnight reaction lows at 76.51, 76.55, 76.53 and 76.53) and also at 76.20-30 with stops seen below there and 76.00 (option barrier), sizeable stops remain below 75.90, 75.75 and further out at 75.50. On the upside, offers from exporters are reported at 76.90-00 and also 77.20-30 with stops placed above 77.40-50 and further out at 77.90-00 (offers are expected ahead of these stops). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3360Despite overnight selloff to 1.3163, as the single currency has recovered from there, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3273) is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.3360 (previous support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3679-1.3163) and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 1.3163 would extend recent downtrend to 1.3113 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.35Dollar’s selloff from yesterday’s high of 77.27 to 76.51 adds credence to our view that a temporary top has possibly been formed there and near term downside risk remains for weakness towards previous support at 76.34, however, support at 76.10 should hold and bring another rebound later. A break of said resistance would extend the rise from 76.10 to previous resistance at 77.34, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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