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Mid-Day Report: Risk Rally Takes a Breath, Dollar Recovers MildlyAfter impressively strong rally in the past two days, risk markets are taking a breath as the end of the week approaches. Dollar recovers mildly against most major currencies as stocks pare back a little big of they gains. Fitch Ratings warned that the 50% nominated hair cut as agreed by EU and IIF is viewed as "a default event under its Distressed Debt Exchange criteria". Also, Fitch noted that while that's a necessary step, Greece is still facing "significant challenges" as even in a positive scenario, the debt to GDP ratio will remain well over 100%. Fitch urged to have more details on the accord agreed by EU leaders including the details on beefing up the EFSF to EUR 1T. After all, Fitch viewed the summit as having a positive outlook with broad framework agreement on key principles. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8502; (P) 0.8663; (R1) 0.8759; More... With 0.8728 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside and current fall from 0.9315 is still in progress to 161.8% projection of 0.9315 to 0.8880 at 0.9082 at 0.8378. On the upside, above 0.8728 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 0.9082 resistance is needed to continue completion of the fall from 0.9315. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
EU Leaders Made Some Agreements, But Many Still UnresolvedAs indicated in the post-summit statement, EU leaders have agreed on a series of measures to contain the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. In short, the measures can be categorized into term funding and capitalization of banks. While the measures generally matched with market expected and should provide supports in the financial markets in the near-term, the summit has yet to clarify questions such as EFSF leverage, Greece' s PSI scheme and political commitments regarding Italy's reform. Therefore, we retain out cautious view toward the debt problems in the region. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to meeting offers just below 1.4200 and has traded slightly lower in European morning on comments from Fitch on Greek haircut, however, buying interest are still noted at 1.4120-30 (with some stops placed below 1.4120), 1.4100 (related to 1.4100 option expiry) and further out at 1.4050 with more stops placed below 1.4000. On the upside, mixture of offers and stops is tipped at 1.4200-10 and option defense offers remain at 1.4240-50 with sizeable stop-buy orders located above 1.4255-60. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.8700Dollar’s recovery after yesterday’s selloff to 0.8568 suggests further consolidation above this level would take place and above the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.8644) would bring retracement to 0.8700, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around there and previous support at 0.8730 should now turn into resistance, bring another decline later. A break of said support at 0.8568 would extend recent decline from 0.9319 top to 0.8540 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0600As aussie has eased after yesterday’s rally to 1.0753, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and mild upside bias remains for the rise from 0.9388 to extend gain to previous resistance at 1.0765, then 1.0790/00, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0850 and reckon 1.0900 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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