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Daily Report: Dollar Jumps as Risk Off, Greece to Miss Deficit TargetsDollar jumps broadly on risk aversion as the week starts on renewed concern on Greek default. Greece needs to secure the next tranche of bailout funding of EUR 8b or it will run out of cash this month. In spite of it's austerity measures, Greece is still being hit by ongoing recession. The 2012 draft budget approved by the Greek cabinet over the weekend projects 2011 deficit to be at 8.5% GDP, well short of the 7.6% target as agreed for the first bailout. 2012 deficit target will is projected to be at 6.8% GDP, and will also miss target of 6.5%. Greece will remain the focus for the time being as EU finance ministers are going to meet today in Brussels while everybody is waiting for troika's report on Greece's situation. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 102.57; (P) 103.53; (R1) 104.03; More The break of 103.00 minor support suggests that EUR/JPY's recovery has completed at 104.92 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 101.93 low first. Break will confirm resumption of recent decline and should target 100 psychological level next. On the upside, above 104.92 will delay the bearish case and bring more consolidations. But after all, upside should be limited below 106.98 resistance and bring downside breakout eventually. |
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| Special Report |
China Watch: Rebound In PMI Alleviates Hard Landing ConcernsChina's manufacturing PMI climbed for a second consecutive month, by +0.3 points, to 51.2 in September, reversing the declining trend formed since March. The report suggested China's manufacturing activities have stabilized modestly and should alleviate some concerns on a hard landing. However, the seasonally-adjusted picture appeared less rosy with the index falling to 51.3 from 51.7 in August. The index compiled by HSBC PMI was revised higher to 49.9, same as Augusts' reading and staying below the expansion-contraction threshold of 50. Therefore, investors should not turn too optimistic about the country's manufacturing sector yet. RBA On Hold In October, Chance Of Rate Later In The Year IncreasesGlobal economic outlook and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone have deteriorated rapidly since the last RBA meeting. While domestic growth had remained solid, Australia's economy will inevitably be damped should world economic uncertainty increase. Some investors have since the last meeting anticipated a rate cut by the RBA. Cash-rate futures show that investors are betting the RBA will cut the key rate to 4.03% by December from the current rate of 4.75%. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The greenback moved higher after triggering stops above 77.10 and 77.25, however, indicated offers from exporters at 77.30/40 capped dollar's upside so far and price has retreated on risk aversion. The release of Q3 Tankan big firms CAPEX was very much within expectation and had little impact on the FX market. At the moment, offers are still noted at 77.30-40 with bigger stops placed above 77.50 but more selling interest should emerge around 77.70-80 with next batch of stops seen at 77.90-00. On the downside, bids are tipped at 76.70-80 and also 76.50 with stops located below 76.50 and 76.30. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9030The greenback extended last week’s rise from 0.8918, adding credence to our view that correction from 0.9183 has possibly ended at 0.8918 and bullishness remains for test of indicated resistance at 0.9144, however, a sustained breach above there is needed to confirm and bring resumption of upmove for a retest of 0.9183 later. Looking ahead, only above said resistance at 0.9183 would extend recent major reversal from 0.7068 low to 0.9200 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3450The single currency opened lower this week after last week’s selloff from 1.3690 and the breach of previous support at 1.3360 confirms recent decline has resumed and further weakness to 1.3300 would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.3270 and reckon 1.3250 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a corrective rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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