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Mid-Day Report: Manufacturing Data Helps Stabilize SentimentsAfter being pressured for most of the day on Greece situation, markets sentiments stabilize on better than expected manufacturing data from US and UK. The ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly improved from 50.6 to 51.6 in September versus expectation of a drop to 50.3. The details are solid with production up from 48.6 to 51.2 while employment rose from 51.8 to 53.8. UK manufacturing PMI unexpectedly moved back above 50 to 51.1 in Octobers, signaling mild expansion. Eurozone manufacturing PMI was revised from 48.4 to 48.5 in September. Other data released saw Swiss SVME PMI unexpectedly dropped sharply to 48.2 in September while retail sales dropped -1.9% yoy in August. Japan's quarterly Tankan index of large manufacturers rose from -9 to 2 in Q3. Non-manufacturers index rose to 1. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3516; (P) 1.3598 (R1) 1.3676; More. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment and recent fall should be in progress to 161.8% projection of 1.4939 to 1.3969 from 1.4548 at 1.2979, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. On the upside, above 1.3465 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.3689 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. |
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| Special Report |
China Watch: Rebound In PMI Alleviates Hard Landing ConcernsChina's manufacturing PMI climbed for a second consecutive month, by +0.3 points, to 51.2 in September, reversing the declining trend formed since March. The report suggested China's manufacturing activities have stabilized modestly and should alleviate some concerns on a hard landing. However, the seasonally-adjusted picture appeared less rosy with the index falling to 51.3 from 51.7 in August. The index compiled by HSBC PMI was revised higher to 49.9, same as Augusts' reading and staying below the expansion-contraction threshold of 50. Therefore, investors should not turn too optimistic about the country's manufacturing sector yet. RBA On Hold In October, Chance Of Rate Later In The Year IncreasesGlobal economic outlook and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone have deteriorated rapidly since the last RBA meeting. While domestic growth had remained solid, Australia's economy will inevitably be damped should world economic uncertainty increase. Some investors have since the last meeting anticipated a rate cut by the RBA. Cash-rate futures show that investors are betting the RBA will cut the key rate to 4.03% by December from the current rate of 4.75%. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite falling to an 8-month low of 1.3314, the single currency recovered in part due to the release of slightly better-than-expected eurozone PMI manufacturing data, talk of ECB buying Spanish and Italian debt also seen supporting the euro. At the moment, bids from Asian CBs and margin accounts are noted from 1.3330 down to 1.3300 with stops seen below latter level where barrier is located, next option barrier at 1.3275. On the upside, mixtures of offers (from U.S. names) and stops are seen at 1.3380-90 and further out at 1.3450-60. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9030As the greenback has retreated after faltering below indicated previous resistance at 0.9144, suggesting consolidation below intra-day high of 0.9129 would take place and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9060) would be seen, however, renewed buying interest should emerge above previous resistance at 0.9022 and bring another rise later. A break indicated resistance at 0.9144 would confirm the correction from 0.9183 has ended at 0.8918, bring resumption of upmove for a retest of 0.9183 later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Target met and sell again at 103.90Friday’s anticipated selloff adds credence to our view that correction from 101.95 has ended at 104.96 last week (our short position entered at 104.50 met target at 102.50) and bearishness remains for recent decline to resume after consolidation, break of said support at 101.95 would extend weakness to 101.50 and possibly towards 101.00, however, loss of momentum would prevent sharp fall below there and reckon 100.50 would hold. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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