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Daily Report: Risk Appetite Continues on European Optimism, But Losing MomentumRisk appetite continued on optimism on European bank recapitalization plan. European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso presented a "comprehensive package" yesterday and urged immediate actions from European policymakers to resolve the current crisis. The recommendations include "decisive action" on Greece including the next tranche of bailout fund and a second "adjustment program" with private sector involvement. Banks should be strengthened "urgently" as sovereign contagion and banks are now "linked". Barroso also called for another assessment of the banking system and "fast track" policies of enhancing stability and recovery in Europe. Finally, Barroso said European Union should complete the "monetary union with a real economic union". Also, markets are also hopeful that Slovakia will finally become the last country in Eurozone to approve the EFSF expansion today or tomorrow. The opposition party made an agreement with parties in departing the Slovak coalition that they'll vote to pass through the EFSF expansion in exchange for early elections in March. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9945; (P) 1.0076; (R1) 1.0286; More AUD/USD rises further to as high as 1.0232 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for near term channel resistance (now at 1.0412). Sustained break there will pave the way for 1.0764 resistance and above in near term. On the downside, below 1.0104 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another rise will remain in favor as long as 0.9865 support holds. However, break of 0.9865 will suggest that rebound from 0.9387 has completed and will bring retest of this support. |
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| Special Reports |
Fed Favors Improving Communication, Balance Sheet Expansion Appears Unlikely Unless Deflation Fear ReturnsSome new information was delivered in the September FOMC minutes. First, most policymakers lowered their forecasts for the rest of 2011 and 2012. Yet, recession is not their concerns. Second, most members saw advantages in improving communication regarding the goals for inflation and unemployment. However, there were concerns about a proper mechanism to avoid misunderstanding. Moreover, 3 policy options for managing the size and composition of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) were discussed during the meeting: a reinvestment maturity extension program, a SOMA portfolio maturity extension program, and a large-scale asset purchase program. While the second option, known as operation twist, has been chosen, 2 members favored stronger action while 3 members dissented to take additional accommodation'. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: After rallying to yesterday high of 77.49 on stop-hunting and active buying by Swiss and U.S. names, the greenback has retreated today after running into offers from exporters and selling interest from them is still seen at 77.30-50 with more stops placed above 77.50 with mixture of offers and stops remain at 77.90-00. There are some strange rumors that MOF is following SNB to set minimum rate on USD/JPY at 80.00, bids are still noted at 76.70-80, 76.50 and further out at 76.20-30 with stops remain below 76.00-10 (option barrier) and also 75.90. Option expires include 76.50 (100 mln), 77.50 (100 mln) and 78.00 (100 mln). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy again at 76.60Despite yesterday’s anticipated rally from 76.31 to 77.49, as the greenback has retreated from there after running into offers from exporters, suggesting consolidation with initial downside bias would be seen for weakness to the Kijun-Sen (now at 76.91) and then the Ichimoku cloud (now at 76.68), however, said support at 76.31 should hold and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would add credence to our bullish view that another leg of major correction is underway Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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