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Monday, August 10, 2009

Forex Analysis Daily || Action Insight Daily Report 8-10-09

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Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar Consolidates, Light Calendar Ahead

Dollar retreats mildly as the week starts to digest Friday's sharp gain. But after all, downside is limited so far as the greenback is supported by mild weakness in commodities with crude oil hovering around 70 level while gold stays sold below 960. Asian stocks are broadly higher following strength in US but provide little inspiration to currency markets so far. The economic calendar is light today and dollar will likely consolidate further for a while before resuming the current rally.

Full Report Here...

Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6770

As the British pound has traded narrowly after dropping to as low as 1.6650 last Friday, suggesting further consolidation would take place, however, as top has been formed at 1.7044 last week, upside should be limited to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6760) and resistance at 1.6837 should continue to hold and bring another selloff later. Break of said support would extend weakness to 1.6608 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6338 to 1.7044). However, reckon support at 1.6587 (previous resistance) would hold from here.

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Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy At 1.0750

The greenback has traded narrowly after Friday's rally to 1.0845, suggesting further near term consolidation would take place but renewed buying interest should emerge above the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0749) and bring another rise towards 1.0891. Having said that, it is necessary to see a clear break of recent strong resistance at 1.0935/40 to retain bullishness for a stronger correction of recent decline towards 1.1026 resistance.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 96.70

As dollar has eased after Friday's rally to 97.79, suggesting minor consolidation would take place but pullback should be limited to 96.70/75 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 95.05 to 97.79) and the Tenkan-Sen (now at 96.42) should contain downside and bring another upmove later. Above Friday's high at 97.79 would extend recent upmove from 91.73 to 98.00, however, strong resistance at 98.90 should hold on first testing.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD -Sell At 1.4275

As euro has recovered after Friday's selloff to 1.4154, suggesting further consolidation would take place and whilst rebound to 1.4254 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4415 to 1.4154) cannot be ruled out, expect upside to be limited to 1.4283/84 (current level of the Tenkan-Sen and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4415 to 1.4154) and bring another selloff later to 1.4140 ( (50% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 1.3832) but reckon 1.4067 (61.8% retracement) would hold.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.81; (P) 96.79; (R1) 98.54; More.

At this point, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside with 96.78 minor support intact. As discussed before, the decisive break of short term falling channel resistance indicates that fall from 101.43 has completed with three waves down to 91.73 already. Further rise should be seen to 98.87 resistance first and break there will confirm this case and target 101.43 high next. On the downside, below 96.78 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first and bring consolidation. But downside should be contained above 95.05 support and bring rally resumption.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CADJPY 89.71 90.17 -46 -0.51%
GBPJPY 162.09 162.74 -65 -0.40%
AUDCAD 0.9087 0.9053 +34 +0.37%
USDJPY 97.23 97.55 -32 -0.33%
EURCAD 1.5381 1.5333 +48 +0.31%

Last Updated: Aug 10, 06:55 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View


USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD






EUR






JPY






GBP






Last Updated: Aug 10, 06:55 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Jun 1.80T 1.42T 1.02T
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jun 2.70% 2.60% -3.00%
6:00 JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment Jul 42.4 43.4 42.2
8:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Aug
-25.8 -31.3
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