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Friday, August 14, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-14-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Yen Higher on Falling Treasury Yield after CPI and Consumer Sentiment

While dollar is generally staying in tight range, yen extends recent rebound together with falling treasury yield after release of US CPI report. Further strength is seen in the Japanese yen after release of disappointing consumer sentiment data. Stocks open mildly softer but is basically staying in tight range below this week's high. Crude oil also drops back to below 70 level on risk aversion.

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Special Report

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Although the single currency rose to as high as 138.72 last Friday, the retreat from there suggests the wave I of wave 3 has ended there and a week of consolidation below there would take place, however, break of 134.10 support is needed to confirm this view and bring correction to 132.80 but downside should be limited to 131.48 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave i from 127.00 to 138.72) and 130.00 should hold and bring wave iii of 3 later this month.

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USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Despite falling marginally to 1.0563 last week, the rebound from there suggests the (c) wave has possibly ended there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen but break of 1.0935/40 is needed to add credence to this view, bring test of 1.1026 resistance. Once this level is broken, this would confirm low has finally been formed and correction in wave (d) would take place for further rise towards 1.1290/00 (approx. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1742-1.0563) and then towards 1.1431 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of entire wave (c) from 1.1967).

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

EURCAD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Although the single currency has recovered after falling to 1.5186 earlier and consolidation above this level would take place, reckon upside would be limited and renewed selling interest should emerge around the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.5757, this is also just below 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6329 to 1.5186 at 1.5758) and bring another decline to 1.5310/20, however, break of said support is needed to confirm the fall from 1.7509 has resumed to 1.5106 (100% projection of 1.7509-1.5642 measuring from 1.6973), then 1.4901 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3289 to 1.7509) but support at 1.4702-19 (100% projection of 1.6973-1.5346 measuring from 1.6329 and previous chart support) should remain intact.

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EURJPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Although the single currency rose to as high as 138.72 last week, the retreat from there to 134.10 suggests the upmove from 112.08 is not ready to resume yet and correction towards the Tenkan-Sen (now at 132.87 cannot be ruled out, however, the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 129.58) should contain downside and bring another rise but break of 138.72 resistance is needed to bring resumption of aforesaid rise for retest of 139.26, then to 141.03 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 169.97-112.08 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) and later towards 143.80 (61.8% projection of 112.08 to 139.26 measuring from 127.00), however, as this move is still viewed as correction of the entire decline from 169.97 top, reckon 145.00 would hold from here.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 94.84; (P) 95.67; (R1) 96.29; More.

USD/JPY's fall extends further to as low as 94.59 in early US session and further fall might still be seen. Nevertheless, key level should lie in 94.03/05 (100% projection of 97.77 to 95.11 from 96.71 at 94.05 and 61.8% retracement of 91.73 to 97.77 at 94.03). As long as this level holds, we're still favoring the case that fall from 97.77 is merely a correction and rise from 97.13 is still in progress. Above 96.71 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for rally resumption to 98.87 resistance.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 79.37 80.49 -112 -1.41%
EURJPY 134.67 136.44 -177 -1.31%
CHFJPY 88.25 89.21 -96 -1.09%
GBPJPY 156.69 158.28 -159 -1.01%
USDJPY 94.53 95.47 -94 -0.99%

Last Updated: Aug 14, 14:00 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Aug 14, 14:00 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.10% -0.30% 0.80% 0.70%
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Jun -0.40% -0.50% 1.60% -1.50%
23:30 AUD RBA Governor's Semi-Annual Parliament Testimony -- --
23:50 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes -- --
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jun 0.10% -0.30% -0.10% -0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Jul -0.70% -0.60% 0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jul -0.70% -0.60% -0.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Core CPI Y/Y Jul 1.30% 1.30% 1.40%
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jun 1.90% -0.30% -6.00% -4.90%
12:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Jun -0.60% -1.00% 1.00% 1.10%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Jul 0.00% 0.00% 0.70%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jul -2.10% -1.90% -1.40%
12:30 USD Core CPI M/M Jul 0.10% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD Core CPI Y/Y Jul 1.50% 1.60% 1.70%
13:15 USD Industrial Production Jul 0.50% 0.20% -0.40%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Jul 68.50% 68.10% 68.00%
14:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Aug P 63.2 69 66
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