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Thursday, August 27, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 8-27-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Daily Report: Yen Rallies on China News and Falling Yields

Japanese yen rallies in Asia today on broad based weakness Asian equities and news that China is planning to curb overcapacity and excessive investments in some industries. China stock dropped mildly by less than -1% and remains in range but the recovery since mid-Aug is clearly losing momentum and the sharp fall since early Aug is still set to resume. GBP/JPY takes the lead by breaking through recent low of 153.43 yesterday while USD/JPY is now back pressing 93.41 support. Extended weakness in treasury yield, which saw yield on 30 years T-bond resuming the fall to 4.2% yesterday also provides additional support to yen. We'd continue to favor more downside in yen crosses in general.

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Special Reports

Forecasts Update: AUD, NZD, CAD, Gold, Oil

Commodity prices and commodity currencies continued to overshoot on the upside last month although many of the rallies looked excessive and needed correction. Increase in risk appetite amid improvements in macro economic outlook drove investors to higher-yield assets from 'safe havens' such as USD and JPY.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy At 1.0600

Although the greenback rallied to 1.0717 yesterday, as price has eased after running into resistance at Ichimoku cloud bottom, consolidation would be seen and retreat to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0634) cannot be ruled out, however, minor support at 1.0580 (yesterday's low) should limit downside and bring another strong rebound later. Above said resistance would bring stronger correction of recent decline from 1.0885 to 1.0752/58 (current level of Ichimoku cloud top and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0885 to 1.0553), however, resistance at 1.0834 would remain intact.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6335

Although the British pound has recovered after falling to 1.6160 yesterday and consolidation above there would take place, upside should be limited to 1.6338 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6625 to 1.6160) and renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline. Below said support would extend the fall from 1.7044 to 1.6150 (61.8% projection of 1.7044 to 1.6275 measuring from 1.6625), however, as the decline is losing near term downward momentum, reckon 1.6100 would limit downside.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4330

The single currency fell to as low as 1.4205 yesterday and although the pair recovered after trading above the Ichimoku cloud area and gain to the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4279 and 1.4291 respectively) cannot be ruled out, resistance at 1.4377 should continue to hold and bring another decline later. Break of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.4187) would suggest the rise from 1.4045 has ended but below 1.4172/73 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4045 to 1.4377 and previous resistance turned support) would confirm and extend fall to 1.4120/30.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 94.25

Failure to extend the rebound yesterday (the thick Ichimoku cloud proved to be a tough nut to crack) and the cross-inspired decline below 93.79 support signal the recovery from 93.42 has ended at 95.07 and as price is now trading well below Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and the Ichimoku cloud, bearishness is seen for the decline from 97.79 to resume and break of 93.42 support would extend weakness to 93.00, however, reckon 92.48 (1.618 times projection of 97.79 to 95.12 measuring from 96.80) would remain intact.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.19; (P) 153.15; (R1) 154.08; More

GBP/JPY's fall from 163.05 resumes and extends further to as low as 151.35 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 153.15 minor resistance holds. Current fall is expected to continue to 146.75 key support next. On the upside, above 153.15 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 157.47 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 151.67 153.13 -146 -0.96%
CADJPY 85.13 85.88 -75 -0.88%
NZDJPY 63.67 64.21 -54 -0.85%
USDJPY 93.56 94.26 -70 -0.75%
CHFJPY 87.59 88.24 -65 -0.74%

Last Updated: Aug 27, 07:40 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Aug 27, 07:40 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Jul -163M -139M -417M -332M
0:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Jun 0.90% -- -0.10% -0.20%
1:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure Q2 3.30% -4.70% -8.90% -7.30%
6:10 EUR German GfK Consumer Climate Sep 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.4
8:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jul 3.20% 3.50%
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q2 P -1.40% -1.00%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q2 P 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD Core PCE Q/Q Q2 P 2.00% 2.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 563K 576K
-- EUR German CPI M/M AUG P 0.00% 0.00%
-- EUR German CPI Y/Y AUG P -0.20% -0.50%
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