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Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-26-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Rises Sharply, More Upside Ahead?

Dollar strengthen again in early US session as crude oil extends recent decline after brief recovery, dipping below 71 level. Stronger than expected durable goods orders provides little inspiration to markets as stocks open mildly lower which treasury yields also open softly. Sterling remains the weakest currency together with higher yielders. Euro is supported by stronger than expected Germany business confidence and extends rally in EUR/GBP, but falls sharply against dollar.

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Special Reports

EUR/GBP Elliott Wave Analysis

The single currency finally broke above indicated resistance at 0.8699, reinforcing our view that low has been formed at 0.8400 and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 0.8868 resistance (wave 4 top). Looking ahead, break there would confirm the wave 5 as well as wave C has ended, then stronger bounce to 0.9082 would follow.

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis

The 3-legged rebound to 1.1126 and the sharp retreat from there suggests the wave v may still be in progress and as long as said resistance level holds, a retest of 1.0632 support cannot be ruled out, however, it is necessary to see a break there to signal the wave v of c is under way towards 1.0590 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9059-1.3066). However, as this is the final wave v of c leg as well as the entire wave B from 1.3066, downside should be limited to 1.0531 (61.8% projection of the beginning of wave i to iii measuring from wave iv) and support at 1.0310/15 should remain intact.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

AUDJPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

As the Tenkan-Sen has contained aussie's retreat from 82.00, suggesting consolidation would take place, however, we are keeping our view that a possible top formation at 82.00, mild downside bias remains for another fall to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 76.39), however, a weekly close below there is needed to confirm and bring correction to 73.90/00 and possibly towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 71.53) but support at 70.76 should remain intact.

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AUDUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

The Australian dollar continued to find support above the Tenkan-Sen and another 'hammer' like candlestick pattern was formed last week, however, as long as 0.8479 resistance (where a 'doji' star was formed) holds, we are still keeping our view of further consolidation but a weekly close below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.8090) is a necessary condition to signal temporary top has been formed at 0.8479, then correction towards the flat ground Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.7929) would follow. However, reckon support at 0.7700 would hold from here and bring a rebound later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6304; (P) 1.6373; (R1) 1.6417; More

GBP/USD's decline from 1.7043 resumes as expected and drops to as low as 1.6159 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.6265 minor resistance holds. Fall from 1.7043 is expected to continue towards 1.5983 key support next. ON the upside, above 1.6265 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery is expected to be limited below 1.6622 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 152.90 153.93 -103 -0.67%
GBPUSD 1.6238 1.6347 -109 -0.67%
AUDUSD 0.8305 0.8355 -50 -0.60%
AUDJPY 78.20 78.67 -47 -0.60%
EURGBP 0.8791 0.8744 +47 +0.53%

Last Updated: Aug 26, 13:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Aug 26, 13:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Jul 0.19T 0.35T 0.44T 0.37T
23:50 JPY CSPI Y/Y Jul -3.40% -3.30% -3.20%
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Jul -0.90% -0.80% 0.40%
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index Y/Y Jul -12.60% -12.50% -11.30%
08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Aug 90.5 89.1 87.3
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Jul 4.90% 3.30% -2.50% -2.20%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transport Jul 0.80% 1.00% 1.10% 1.60%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Jul 390K 384K
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.1M -8.4M
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