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Friday, August 21, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 8-21-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Lifted Mildly as China Tightens Bank Rule, But Lacks Follow Through Momentum

Yen was lifted higher in Asian session today by news that China is setting rules to tighten bank capital requirements and made a new higher against dollar, but lacks follow through buying so far. Indeed, yen crosses are generally kept above this week's low and it looks like some more consolidation would be seen. Similar situation is found in dollar as the recovery earlier today lacks sustainable momentum so far and recent consolidation is likely still in progress. One thing to note is that Sterling is still the biggest loser this week. Today's break of 0.8652 resistance in EUR/GBP suggests that another round of selling in the pound might be underway which will make sterling crosses vulnerable.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0680

The greenback has fallen again after meeting renewed selling at 1.0685 yesterday, suggesting a retest of recent low at 1.0563 is under way, below would signal the decline from 1.1967 has resumed and extend towards 1.0500/10, however, oversold condition would prevent sharp move below there today and risk from there has increased for a rebound later.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.6395

Although cable retreated after yesterday's brief rise to 1.6611 and price dropped below the Kijun-Sen, reckon 1.6375 support would limit downside and further consolidation above recent low at 1.6275 would take place. Above said resistance would bring correction of recent decline from 1.7044 to the resistance at 1.6670 (this is also just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire fall from 1.7044 to 1.6275 at 1.6660) and later towards the flat ground Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6717).

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4180

As the single currency maintained a firm undertone, suggesting the rise from 1.4045 low would extend gain towards resistance at 1.4328, however, break of this level is needed to signal the decline from 1.4448 top has ended at 1.4045 and headway to 1.4380/90 would follow but resistance at 1.4415 would limit upside and further choppy consolidation below 1.4448 would take place.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 93.30

The greenback fell again this morning on renewed cross-buying in Japanese yen due to risk aversion and although dollar has recovered from 93.47, a clear break above 94.56 resistance (this would also break the Kijun-Sen) is needed to confirm low has been formed and bring correction of recent decline to 95.30-39 (previous resistance and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom), then to 95.63 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 97.79 to 93.47), however, price should falter below the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 96.11).

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 93.84; (P) 94.19; (R1) 94.54; More.

USD/JPY's fall resumes and edges lower to 93.47 earlier today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 94.54 minor resistance holds. The break of 61.8% retracement of 91.73 to 97.77 at 94.03 suggests that whole rebound from 91.73 has completed at 97.77 already and further fall could now be seen to retest 91.73 low next. On the upside, above 94.54 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 97.77 resistance holds.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 77.99 78.28 -29 -0.37%
GBPCHF 1.7477 1.7541 -64 -0.37%
EURAUD 1.7203 1.7143 +60 +0.35%
GBPJPY 154.90 155.44 -54 -0.35%
NZDJPY 63.51 63.73 -22 -0.35%

Last Updated: Aug 21, 08:00 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Aug 21, 08:00 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
07:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Aug P 47 45.7
07:30 EUR German PMI Services Aug P 48.6 48.1
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Aug P 47.5 46.3
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Aug P 46.5 45.7
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Jul 5.00M 4.89M
14:00 USD Bernanke Speaks at Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Conference -- --
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