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Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-25-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Sentiments Boosted by Consumer Confidence and House Price Data

Markets sentiments are boosted by another round of solid data from US. Conference Board consumer confidence rose sharply to 54.1 in Aug, just below May's high of 54.8. S&P Case-Shiller home price index for 20 cities dropped -15.4% yoy in June, much better than expectation of -16.4% and was the best reading since April 2008. The data provides another positive sign that the housing markets in the US are stabilizing. US stocks extends recent rally with DOW breaking through 9600 level to as high as 9620 so far. Crude oil also followed stocks and touches 75 level. Dollar and yen, on the other hand, are sharply lower against other major currencies.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

GBP/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

As the retreat from 1.8091 has kept sterling under pressure, retaining our mildly bearish view that the c leg as well as the wave 4 correction from 1.5122 and our first downside target at 1.7448 has been met, with price breaking below indicated support at 1.7391, further decline to 1.7120/25, then 1.7000 is underway.

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GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis

The British pound traded narrowly after falling to 1.6275 and further consolidation is likely to take place and we are keeping our view that wave (v) has formed a top at 1.7044, hence downside bias remains for correction towards 1.6000, however, a daily close below 1.5983 support is needed to confirm this view and bring stronger correction towards 1.5802 support and then 1.5690 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 1.3500 to 1.7044).

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

GBPUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

The retreat to 1.6275 last week adds credence to our view that the shooting star candlestick pattern formed at 1.7044 is possibly a top formation and further consolidation below there would take place with downside bias for correction of recent upmove to 1.6100, then test of 1.5983 support and later towards 1.5721(50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4398 to 1.7044). However, price should stay well above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5349) and stage a strong rebound from there probably next month.

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USDCHF Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

As the greenback has fallen again after meeting renewed selling at 1.0885, suggesting the decline from 1.1967 is still in progress and weakness to 1.0436-51 (1.618 times projection of 1.1967-1.1160 measuring from 1.1742 and 50% projection of 1.1742-1.0592 measuring from 1.1026 respectively) is likely. Having said that, it is necessary to see a drop below chart support at 1.0370 to extend the entire decline from 1.2298 towards 1.0100 but psychological support at 1.0000 should remain intact.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0716; (P) 1.0770; (R1) 1.0815; More.

USD/CAD edges lower to 1.0718 in early US session and at this point, intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 1.0826 minor resistance intact. Retest of 1.0631 should be seen and break will bring resumption of whole decline from 1.1723 to next target of 61.8% projection of 1.1723 to 1.0631 from 1.1123 at 1.0448. On the upside, above 1.0826 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But short term risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.1123 resistance holds.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDUSD 0.6888 0.6847 +41 +0.60%
USDCHF 1.0572 1.0612 -40 -0.38%
EURUSD 1.4353 1.4302 +51 +0.36%
AUDUSD 0.8415 0.8387 +28 +0.33%
USDJPY 94.24 94.55 -31 -0.33%

Last Updated: Aug 25, 13:35 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Aug 25, 13:35 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
3:00 NZD RBNZ 2-Yr Inflation Expectation Q3 2.30% -- 2.20%
6:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Jul 0.77 -- 0.96 0.95
6:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q2 F 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
7:15 CHF Employment Level Q2 3.95M 3.956M 3.957M
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jun -16.40% -17.10%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Aug 48 46.6
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Jun 0.40% 0.90%
14:00 USD House Price Index Y/Y Jun -- -19.07%
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Technical Highlights

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