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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

FOREX Analysis Daily || Action Insight Daily Report 8-12-09

ActionForex.com






Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar and Yen Rally ahead of FOMC Announcement and BoE Inflation Report

Dollar is extending recent rally against most major currencies, helped by sharp falls in yen crosses, as traders are awaiting FOMC announcement today. Sterling remains pressured ahead of the highly anticipated BoE Quarterly Inflation Report. Commodity currencies are hardest hit, extending yesterday's sharp fall against dollar and yen, and the selloff accelerates following broad based weakness in Asian stocks and commodities. Yen crosses also dive sharply, with support from the sharp reversal in treasury yield as well and weak equities.

Full Report Here...

Special Reports

Preview On FOMC Meeting: Less Dovish Tone Anticipated

The FOMC meeting on August 12 is the highlight of the week and the several things we will be focusing on are 1) How will the Fed handle the asset purchase program which will expire in September; 2) if the Fed will drop the statement that 'the Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period' and 3) any change on the Fed's forecasts given recent improvements in economic data.

Full Report Here...

Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6575, O.C.O. Buy At 1.6320

As the British pound has remained under pressure, suggesting the reversal from 1.7044 top is still in progress and further fall towards 1.6388 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5983 to 1.7044) is under way, however, as hourly oscillators would display bullish convergence on such a fall, reckon 1.6320/25 (approx. 50% projection of 1.6837 to 1.6431 measuring from 1.6528) would limit downside and price should stay above support at 1.6266 and bring rebound later.

Full Report Here...

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy At 1.0750

As dollar has traded narrowly after early rise to 1.0885, retaining our view that further consolidation below said resistance would take place and another corrective fall to 1.0768 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0576 to 1.0885) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0749) would limit downside and 1.0731 (50% Fibonacci retracement) should contain pullback and bring another upmove. Above resistance at 1.0885/91 would extend the rise from 1.0563 low towards 1.0935/40.

Full Report Here...

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4225

The single currency remained confined inside narrow range of 1.4104 -1.4186 and further consolidation would take place, however, as long as said support level holds, another corrective rebound to 1.4223/27 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4415-1.4104 and current level of the flat ground Ichimoku cloud bottom) but price should stay below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4264), bring another selloff later. Break of 1.4104 support would extend the decline from 1.4448 top to 1.4067 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 1.3832), however, as hourly oscillators are displaying bullish convergence, downside should be limited and price would stay well above chart support at 1.4007.

Full Report Here...

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 96.50, O.C.O. Buy At 95.00

Although the greenback has remained under pressure and the decline from 97.79 top may extend towards 94.96/95.05 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and previous support), as near term downward momentum is weakening, downside should be limited to 94.63 and support at 94.36 would hold and bring rebound later. On the upside, expect renewed selling interest to emerge around the Kijun-Sen (now at 96.40) and bring another selloff later.

Full Report Here...

Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6431; (P) 1.6477; (R1) 1.6523; More

GBP/USD's fall extends further to as low as 1.6390 so far today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.6522 minor resistance holds. Further decline should be seen to 1.6338 support as well as trend line at around same level. Decisive break there will raise the odds that medium term rebound has completed at 1.7043 will bring further fall towards 1.5983 key support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.6522 will turn intraday outlook neutral first and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited below 1.6832 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 78.17 79.56 -139 -1.78%
NZDJPY 63.06 64.03 -97 -1.54%
AUDUSD 0.8198 0.8290 -92 -1.12%
CADJPY 86.17 87.10 -93 -1.08%
GBPJPY 156.58 158.15 -157 -1.00%

Last Updated: Aug 12, 07:40 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View


USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD






EUR






JPY






GBP






Last Updated: Aug 12, 07:40 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Jul -8.50% -8.70% -6.60% -6.70%
1:00 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Aug 3.70% -- 9.30%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jun F 2.30% 2.40% 2.40%
5:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report
-- --
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Change Jul
28.0K 23.8K
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Jul
4.90% 4.80%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jun
7.70% 7.60%
8:30 GBP Average Earnings inc bonus (3M/Y) Jun
2.40% 2.30%
8:30 GBP Average Earnings ex bonus (3M/Y) Jun
2.50% 2.60%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Unit Wage Cost (3M/Y) Jun
-- 7.10%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jun
0.20% 0.50%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Jun
-16.40% -17.00%
9:30 GBP BoE Quarterly Inflation Report
-- --
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Jun
-0.5B -1.4B
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jun
0.00% -0.10%
12:30 USD Trade Balance Jun
-$28.5B -$26.0B
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
0.7M 1.7M
18:00 USD Federal Budget Statement Jul
-$161.5B -94.3B
18:15 USD FOMC Rate Decision
0.25% 0.25%
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