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Friday, August 28, 2009

Action Insight Daily Report 8-28-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Markets Calm Down a Bit after a Volatile Day

Forex markets calm down a bit in Asian and early European trading after a wild day overnight. Dollar's sharp reversal and steep fall on late rally in commodities and equities lost momentum as there was no follow through strength in Asian stock markets. The greenback even made a new low against Swissy at 1.0530 and was pressured across the board. Commodity currencies were the biggest winners yesterday and remain firm so far even though China stocks fell another day by more than -2.4%. Sterling remains the relatively weakest one.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Stand Aside

Although the greenback dropped sharply yesterday to a fresh 2009 low of 1.0529, the spike at that low together with the subsequent rebound suggest consolidation would take place above this level and correction to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.0644) cannot be ruled out, only break of resistance at 1.0717 (this would also break the Ichimoku cloud top at 1.0700) would confirm low has been formed at 1.0529 and bring stronger correction.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Exit Short Entered At 1.6305 And Sell At 1.6445

Despite falling marginally to 1.6153 yesterday, the rebound from there suggests a temporary low has possibly been formed and correction to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6349) and possibly towards previous minor resistance at 1.6445, however, price should falter well below the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6499) and bring another decline later. Below said support would extend recent decline from 1.7044 top towards 1.6120/30 is likely, however, loss of downward momentum would limit downside to 1.6070/80 and chart support at 1.6033 would remain intact.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4230

Although the single currency has retreated, the break of 1.4377 resistance yesterday suggests the rise from 1.4045 is still in progress and gain towards recent high at 1.4448, however, only break there would signal medium term upmove has resumed towards 1.4490/00, otherwise, further choppy consolidation would take place.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 92.90

Although the greenback has rebounded after falling to 93.20 yesterday and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for gain to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 94.22), only break of resistance at 94.65 would signal a temporary low has been formed and bring correction of recent decline to 95.07. Break there would confirm the decline from 97.79 has ended and stronger correction to 95.30 and 95.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 97.79 to 93.20), however, reckon 96.04 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) should hold.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0513; (P) 1.0609; (R1) 1.0688; More

USD/CHF's rebound from 1.0552 was limited at 1.0714 and reversed. Subsequent sharp fall sent the pair through 1.0552 low and reached as low as 1.0530. Outlook is turned mildly bearish for the moment. However, further decline might be seen, momentum should continue to diminish and the current decline could be choppy even if it extends. Strong support is expected at lower trend line (now at 1.0436). On the upside, above 1.0714 will be the first alert that USD/CHF has bottomed out and will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0883 resistance.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 78.88 78.46 +42 +0.53%
AUDNZD 1.2260 1.2203 +57 +0.46%
USDJPY 93.90 93.50 +40 +0.43%
GBPJPY 152.85 152.26 +59 +0.39%
CADJPY 86.25 85.96 +29 +0.34%

Last Updated: Aug 28, 08:00 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Aug 28, 08:00 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Aug -25 -24 -25
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Jul 5.70% 5.50% 5.40%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Jul -2.00% -0.50% 0.20%
23:30 JPY National CPI Y/Y Jul -2.20% -2.20% -1.80%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Jul -2.20% -2.20% -1.70%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Aug -1.60% -1.80% -1.80%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Aug -1.90% -1.80% -1.70%
8:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q2 P -0.80% -0.80%
8:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q2 P -5.60% -5.60%
8:30 GBP Index of Services (3M/3M) Jun -0.60% -1.00%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug -21 -23
9:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Aug 78 76
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Aug -28 -30
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Aug -17 -18
9:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Aug -0.6 -0.99
12:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q2 -$11.8B -$9.1B
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jul -0.50% 0.70%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jul -5.00% 6.20%
12:30 USD Personal Income Jul 0.10% -1.30%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Jul 0.20% 0.40%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Jul -0.90% -0.40%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Jul 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Jul 1.30% 1.50%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment AUG F 64.5 63.2
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