Action Insight Daily Report 8-25-09

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Action Insight Daily Report Yen Rises As China Stocks Ended Three Days Rebound, Sterling Soft Japanese yen and dollar to a lesser extent are lifted as China stocks ended the three days rebound and dropped nearly 2.5% today. In addition, yen is supported by the sharp reversal in treasury yield yesterday, which saw yield on 10 year note rose sharply to 3.61% before closing down by -0.06% at 3.494%. The development in yen crosses argues that three wave corrective rise since last week was over, considering that GBP/JPY is now back pressing last week's low of 153.43. We'd anticipate some more strength in yen going forward today which might also give the greenback some support. Full Report Here... Special Reports USD Net Shorts Reduced As Investors Trimmed Euro and Yen Longs Substantially This IMM report covers the 4-week period from July 21 to August 18. Aggregate USD net short positions reduced to -12.65B last week from -18.12B in the week ended July 21 as investors pared back net long positions in the Euro and Japanese yen. Net long positions in Euro plummeted more than -80% to 5732 contracts from 34772 during the period with the steepest decline seen last week. At the current level, speculators' bias towards the currency has become 'neutral'. Full Report Here... Central Banks Forecasts Update The sizable policy stimulus since 4Q2009 seems to have finally put an end to the worst economy recession after Great Depression. In recent months, macro-economic data have improved and sentiments have turned robust. The market begins to talk about exit from the easing cycle. The majority of analysts in the street expect RBA will be the first central bank to increase its policy rate while the BOJ and the SNB will probably be the last ones. For the rest, the first rate hike will begin in the second half of next year. Full Report Here... Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0720 Near term sideways trading above recent low at 1.0553 is expected to continue and with the Tenkan-Sen started turning upward, recovery to 1.0660/68 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0834 to 1.0553 and current level of the Kijun-Sen) and 1.0685-94 (previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement level) is likely, however, we still think resistance at 1.0726 /31(previous support turned resistance and current level of flat ground Ichimoku cloud bottom) would cap upside and bring another selloff later. Below 1.0553 would extend weakness towards 1.0490/00, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.0440/50 (just below 50% projection of 1.1742 to 1.0592 measuring from 1.1026 at 1.0451). Full Report Here... Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6440 The British pound extended the decline from 1.6625 after the Tenkan-Sen crossed below the Kijun-Sen yesterday (this provided a sell signal) and with both lines are now turning down, suggesting the decline from 1.7044 top would resume for a retest of 1.6275 support, break there would bring a stronger correction of recent upmove to 1.6241 (50% projection of 1.7044 to 1.6275 measuring from 1.6225, however, reckon 1.6150 (61.8% projection level) would hold from here. Full Report Here... Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4210 As the single currency has continued to move lower partly due to active cross-selling against the Japanese yen, suggesting correction of recent rise is under way and fall towards the convergence of Kijun-Sen and Ichimoku cloud top (now both at 1.4230) is likely, however, downside should be limited to the support at 1.4209 (last Friday's low) and renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rally later. On the upside, above 1.4377 resistance is needed to extend the rise from 1.4045 towards 1.4415 later. Full Report Here... Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Hold Long Entered At 93.90 The cross-inspired retreat from yesterday's high of 95.07 suggests caution on our near term bullish view on the greenback and last week's low at 93.42 must hold for another corrective rise to said resistance but it is necessary to see a break of 95.30 resistance to confirm low has been formed at 93.42 and bring stronger retracement towards 95.61 (50% Fibonacci retracement of entire fall from 97.79 to 93.42). Having said that, the thickness of the Ichimoku cloud still suggests strong resistance would appear near the upper Kumo (now at 95.99). Full Report Here... Featured Technical Report Market Highlights GBP/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.41; (P) 155.61; (R1) 156.41; More GBP/JPY was once again limited by 4 hours 55 EMA and weakened again and is now back pressing 154.34 low. Break there will confirm that whole fall from 164.05 has resumed and should target key support level of 146.75 next. On the upside, while consolidation from 153.43 might still continue and another rise cannot be ruled out, it should be limited below 160.34 resistance and bring fall resumption. Read more... All Technical Outlook Reports EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook Daily Top Movers Top 5 Current Last Change (Pips) Change (%) GBPJPY 154.13 155.20 -107 -0.69% EURJPY 134.45 135.24 -79 -0.59% AUDJPY 78.83 79.29 -46 -0.58% CADJPY 87.38 87.84 -46 -0.53% CHFJPY 88.67 89.07 -40 -0.45% Last Updated: Aug 25, 07:50 GMT Currency Heat Map Daily View USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD USD EUR JPY GBP Last Updated: Aug 25, 07:50 GMT Economic Indicators Update GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 3:00 NZD RBNZ 2-Yr Inflation Expectation Q3 2.30% -- 2.20% 6:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Jul 0.77 -- 0.96 0.95 6:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q2 F 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 7:15 CHF Employment Level Q2 3.95M 3.956M 3.957M 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jun -16.40% -17.10% 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Aug 48 46.6 14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Jun 0.40% 0.90% 14:00 USD House Price Index Y/Y Jun -- -19.07% Suggested Readings Fundamental Highlights Consumer Confidence Could Be An Important Trigger For Going Higher In Equity Markets Asia Treads Water But Risk Appetite Losing Some Of Its Lustre Majors Flatline During Asian Session USD Outlook Tied To Strength Of Global Recovery Equities Close Flat While Commodities Charge Forward on Weaker Dollar Technical Highlights Long Dollar Off Bearish S&P Futures Forex Technical Analytics Forex Technical Update

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