| Action Insight Mid-Day Report | Canadian Dollar Surges on Strong Retail Sales, Consolidation Elsewhere Canadian dollar rises sharply in early US session on the back of much stronger than expected retail sales from Canada. Headline sales rose 1.0% mom in June versus expectation of a -0.1% fall. Ex-auto sales also managed to rise 1.0% mom, much better than consensus of 0.1%. Also, crude oil firms up in early US session and is set to extend recent rally, which provides additional support to the Loonie. One thing to note is that Canadian dollar has regained some strength broadly since last week following the sharp rally in crude oil. For example, the EUR/CAD's recovery should have completed at 1.5695 after hitting 55 days EMA and the development dampens the case that choppy fall from 1.7499 has completed at 1.5183 in July. Instead, we're looking at the prospect of a new low below 1.5183 as the down trend resumes. Full Report Here... | | Special Reports | USD Net Shorts Reduced As Investors Trimmed Euro and Yen Longs Substantially This IMM report covers the 4-week period from July 21 to August 18. Aggregate USD net short positions reduced to -12.65B last week from -18.12B in the week ended July 21 as investors pared back net long positions in the Euro and Japanese yen. Net long positions in Euro plummeted more than -80% to 5732 contracts from 34772 during the period with the steepest decline seen last week. At the current level, speculators' bias towards the currency has become 'neutral'. Full Report Here... Central Banks Forecasts Update The sizable policy stimulus since 4Q2009 seems to have finally put an end to the worst economy recession after Great Depression. In recent months, macro-economic data have improved and sentiments have turned robust. The market begins to talk about exit from the easing cycle. The majority of analysts in the street expect RBA will be the first central bank to increase its policy rate while the BOJ and the SNB will probably be the last ones. For the rest, the first rate hike will begin in the second half of next year. Full Report Here... | | Elliott Wave Analysis | EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis Despite falling to 1.4045 last Monday, the rebound from there suggests the wave v of (c) could still be in progress as a diagonal triangle (as indicated in our previous update) and a retest of 1.4448 cannot be ruled out, however, only break there would extend the final leg of the wave v to it is still possible to see a diagonal triangle wave v and marginal rise to 1.4605 (50% projection of wave i-iii measuring from end of wave iv at 1.3878) but upside should be limited to 1.4720 and bring retreat in wave D. Full Report Here... USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis Despite last week's anticipated fall to 93.42, as indicated support at 93.09 has held, the rebound from there suggests the wave ii from 97.79 has possibly ended at 93.42 and gain to 95.61 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 97.79 to 93.42), then towards 96.12 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), however, it is necessary to see a clear break of 96.80 resistance to confirm this view and then retest of 97.79 would follow. Full Report Here... | | Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis | EURUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis A white candlestick was formed last week following previous week's 'doji' star and the rising Tenkan-Sen suggests a retest of 1.4448 resistance cannot be ruled out, however, it is still necessary to see a break of this level to confirm the upmove from 1.2457 has resumed and extend towards 1.4646 (61.8% projection of 1.2885 to 1.4339 measuring from 1.3747). Having said that, as we are still keeping our view of further broad consolidation, still expect the key resistance at 1.4720 to cap euro's upside. Full Report Here... USDJPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis Although the greenback extended early retreat from 97.79 on active cross-buying in yen due to risk aversion and dropped to as low as 93.42 last week, if our view that fall from 101.45 ended at 91.73 is correct, downside would be limited and as long as this support level holds, mild upside bias remains for another rebound towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 96.60) but it is necessary to see a weekly close above resistance at 97.79 to add credence to this view and bring test of the above the flat ground Ichimoku cloud top (now at 98.90, this is exactly the same level of previous resistance), break there would signal the rise from 87.10 (2009 low) has resumed for retest of 101.45. Full Report Here... | | Featured Technical Report | Market Highlights | USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0733; (P) 1.0838; (R1) 1.0914; More. USD/CAD's fall continues as expected and reaches as low as 1.0727 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside for a test on 1.0631 low first. and break will bring resumption of whole decline from 1.1723 to next target of 61.8% projection of 1.1723 to 1.0631 from 1.1123 at 1.0448. On the upside, above 1.0826 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But short term risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.1123 resistance holds. Read more... All Technical Outlook Reports | Daily Top Movers | Top 5 | Current | Last | Change
(Pips) | Change
(%) | | AUDJPY | 79.77 | 78.76 | +101 | +1.27% | | NZDJPY | 65.09 | 64.37 | +72 | +1.11% | | CADJPY | 88.17 | 87.27 | +90 | +1.02% | | GBPAUD | 1.9578 | 1.9767 | -189 | -0.97% | | AUDUSD | 0.8420 | 0.8346 | +74 | +0.88% | Last Updated: Aug 24, 13:35 GMT Currency Heat Map Daily View | USD | EUR | JPY | GBP | CHF | CAD | AUD | | USD | | | | | | | | | EUR | | | | | | | | | JPY | | | | | | | | | GBP | | | | | | | | Last Updated: Aug 24, 13:35 GMT | | Economic Indicators Update | | GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Revised | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial New Orders M/M Jun | 3.10% | 1.80% | -0.50% | -0.50% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y Jun | -25.10% | -28.30% | -30.30% | -30.30% | | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales M/M Jun | 1.00% | -0.10% | 1.20% | | | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jun | 1.00% | 0.10% | 0.70% | | | | Suggested Readings | Fundamental Highlights Technical Highlights | | | Forex Brokers | | | Sponsors | 
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