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Monday, August 31, 2009

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-31-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

More Upside in Dollar and Yen on Falling Stocks, Commodities and Yield

Dollar strengthens mildly in early US session following dropped weakness in commodities which saw crude oil back pressing 70 level while gold also fell below 950. Canadian dollar is particularly weak after release of worse than expected GDP report which showed 0.1% mom growth June while Q2 annualized rate was at -3.4% qoq, lower than expectation of -3.0%. US stocks open lower and dropped below 9500 level. Nevertheless, treasury yield is still holding above last week's low and thus, yen crosses are still steadily in range after earlier selloff.

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Special Report

Events to Watch: RBA, UK PMI Manufacturing, US ISM Manufacturing

While it's widely anticipated that the RBA will keep its policy rate unchanged for the 5th consecutive month at 3%, the timing of the first tightening may come earlier than previously expected. Given the strong data flows in these 2 months, there's a possibility that the RBA will start increasing interest rate in 4Q09, compared with previous consensus forecast of 1Q10.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis

Despite rising to 1.4407 last week, the retreat from there suggests further consolidation would take place and fall to 1.4205 cannot be ruled out, however, only below 1.4045 support would signal top has been formed at 1.4448 earlier and bring correction to 1.4000, otherwise, we prospect of a diagonal wave v ( larger degree wave (c) ) remains. Above 1.4448 resistance would extend the final leg of the wave v towards 1.4605 (50% projection of wave i-iii measuring from end of wave iv at 1.3878) but upside should be limited to 1.4720 and bring retreat in wave D.

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USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

As the greenback has fallen after brief bounce to 95.07, suggesting a test of 93.09 support cannot be ruled out, however, as long as 91.73 support holds, prospect of another rally remains but break of 95.07 is needed to signal the fall from 97.79 has possibly ended and bring further rise to 96.80. Looking ahead, it is necessary to see a clear break of this resistance to confirm wave ii correction from 97.79 has ended and bring retest of 97.79.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0825; (P) 1.0880; (R1) 1.0971; More.

USD/CAD's rise from 1.0790 extends further in early US session and the break of 1.1019 resistance indicates that rise from 1.0718 has resumed. The development adds more favor to the case that price actions from 1.1074 to 1.0718 are merely consolidation to rally from 1.0631 only. That is, such rise is still in progress. Break of 1.1230 resistance will confirm this case and all affirm the case that USD/CAD has bottomed out too. On the downside, below 1.0970 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But further rise will now be in favor as long as 1.0790 support holds.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CADJPY 83.94 85.69 -175 -2.08%
USDCAD 1.1071 1.0915 +156 +1.41%
AUDJPY 77.67 78.68 -101 -1.30%
EURCAD 1.5811 1.5608 +203 +1.28%
NZDJPY 63.17 63.97 -80 -1.27%

Last Updated: Aug 31, 13:55 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Aug 31, 13:55 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:15 JPY Manufacturing PMI Aug 53.6 -- 50.4
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jul P 1.90% 1.40% 2.40% 2.30%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Jul P -22.90% -23.10% -23.50%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Jul -2.50% -3.30% -3.00% -2.90%
03:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Aug 34.2 -- 18.7
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jul -32.10% -30.30% -32.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Aug -0.20% -0.40% -0.60% -0.70%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jun 0.10% 0.20% -0.50%
12:30 CAD GDP Annualized Q/Q Q2 -3.40% -3.00% -5.40% -6.10%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Aug 50 47.4 43.4
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