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Daily Report: Euro Extends Weakness on Worry Orderly Greece DefaultEuro tumbles further as the week starts on Greece worry while risk assets follow, sending dollar and yen higher broadly. Over the weekend, Greece announced imposition of a new property tax policy on top of existing measures. The new system would mean a levy of 4 euro/sq meter over the next 2 years and is expected to raise around 400B euro. In addition, officials will be subject salary cut by a month. The measured are aiming at meeting the country's deficit targets of EUR 17.1b in 2011 and EUR 14.9b in 2012, with a EUR 2b short fall this year exacerbated by worse than expected recession. Prime Minister George Papandreou pledged “to save the country from bankruptcy”. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 104.80; (P) 106.40; (R1) 107.51; More EUR/JPY drops further to as low as 104.09 so far today and is showing sign of acceleration in the current fall. Intraday bias remains on the downside for next medium term target at 102.42. On the upside, above 106.28 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 108.01 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
China Watch: Moderation in Inflation not Strong Enough to Trigger Monetary EasingModeration of headline CPI to +6.2% y/y in August from +6.5% in the prior month signaled that inflation in China probably peaked in July. Yet, price levels remained elevated and it would be premature to expect China will abandon tightening or even shift to easing monetary policy. Growth of industrial production and fixed asset investment and retail sales decelerated further in August as a result of government's tightening measures. Yet, the rate of expansion remained resilient despite recent global economic turmoil. We expect to see further slowdown in economic activities in coming months but do not envisage any signs of hard landing. |
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| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3710Despite intra-day selloff to 1.3495 in part due to selloff in EUR/JPY, as the single currency has rebounded from there, suggesting minor consolidation above this level would take place and retracement to 1.3660/65 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3937-1.3495) is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge below 1.3712-16 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and 50% Fibonacci retracement) and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend recent downtrend towards 1.3450/55 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.55Despite last week’s rise to 77.86, the subsequent retreat has retained our view that near term downside risk remains for another retreat to 76.72, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, price should stay above support at 76.42 and bring another leg of upmove later. Above 77.60/65 would suggest the retreat from 77.86 has ended and bring a retest of said resistance and later towards 78.00/05 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 88.12-75.94) Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Europan Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The Japanese yen jumped this morning as there wasn’t any agreement reached over the weekend with other G7 countries on joint FX intervention, weakness in Asian equities (Nikkei 225 and HSI down over 2.2% and 3.6% respectively) also put pressure on the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, stops below 77.00 were just triggered. EUR/JPY tumbled this morning to a 10-year low of 104.10, huge stops below 106.50, 105.00 and 104.50 were all triggered and more stops below 104.00 are now in focus. In USD/JPY, more stops are tipped at 76.70 but mixture of bids and stops remains at 76.40-50 with large stops seen at 76.20 and 75.90 whilst on the upside, cross-related offers are tipped at 77.50-60 and also 77.90-00 with stops seen above 78.00. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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