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Daily Report: Muted Reaction to Obama's Job Proposal, Euro Continues Post ECB WeaknessUS President Obama unveiled his proposal to stimulate the US job markets overnight, but the financial markets had little reaction. Obama's USD 447b job proposal mainly targets tax cut and investments. While more details will be released on September 19, the measures include a tax-cut for small businesses if they hire new workers or raise workers; a 4000 tax credit if a company hires anyone who has spent more than 6 months looking for a job and extra tax credits if they hire America's veterans; a 1-year payroll tax cut; extension of unemployment insurance and assistance on refinancing homeowners' mortgages. Obama called for an end to the 'political circus' which he believed is the main reason for S&P's downgrade. |
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EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 107.07; (P) 108.05; (R1) 108.55; More EUR/JPY's break of 107.82 suggests recent decline from 123.31 has resumed. intraday bias is back on the downside and further fall should now be seen to 105.42/106.28 support zone next. On the upside, above 109.08 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But after all, we'll stay bearish as long as 111.93 resistance holds and expect more downside ahead. |
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ECB Pauses in September, Sends Dovish MessageThe ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1.5%. While this had been widely anticipated, the accompanying statement turned out to be more dovish than the market forecast. The central bank revised lower growth forecasts and did not signal upside risks to inflation. The tone appeared that the central bank is ready for a rate cut should the economy deteriorate further. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Look to sell higherAlthough the single currency has fallen again overnight to as low as 1.3873, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.3850 and risk has increased for minor correction to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3981), however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.4080) would cap upside and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.55Although the greenback has rebounded from 77.14 yesterday, as long as indicated resistance at 77.74 holds, further consolidation would take place and downside risk is seen for a test of support at 77.07-14 and break there would bring weakness to 76.72 but renewed buying interest should emerge around support area at 76.42-53 and bring another rise later. A sustained breach of said resistance at 77.74 would extend the rise from 75.94 record low for a stronger retracement of recent downtrend to resistance at 77.86 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency tumbled again overnight on back of weakness in EUR/JPY due to risk aversion (DJI and Nikkei both down), stops below 1.3900 were triggered but bids from Asian sovereign names are noted at 1.3870 and more stops are reported below barrier at 1.3850. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3940-50 and further out at 1.3980-90 with stops building up above 1.4020. Today’s option expires include a big one at 1.4000 (300 mln) and 1.4060 (100 mln), both NY cut. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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