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Daily Report: Aussie Firm after GDP, BoJ on Hold, BoC NextAustralian dollar is lifted mildly by stronger than expected GDP data and rebound in stocks in Asian session. The RBA statement yesterday basically indicates that the bank will be on hold for a while and there is no intention for rate cut yet. And the view is affirmed by today's GDP data, which showed 1.2% qoq expansion in Q2 versus consensus of 1.0% qoq. Meanwhile Q1's contraction was also revised from -1.2% qoq to -0.9% qoq. Asian equity indices are also broadly higher as DOW managed pare much earlier loss to close down -100pts only overnight. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0434; (P) 1.0530; (R1) 1.0580; More AUD/USD formed a temporary low at 1.0481 and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. So far, we're still favoring the case that corrective rebound from 0.9926 is over with three waves up to 1.0764. Hence, we'd expect the current recovery to be limited below 1.0764 and bring another fall. Below 1.0481 will target 1.0314 support first. Break will target a test on 0.9926 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.0764 will invalidate this view and bring stronger rise towards 1.1079 high instead. |
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BOC Withholds From Signaling TighteningRecent headwind in global economic outlook should deter BOC's tightening schedule. We believe the central bank will leave the policy rate unchanged at 1% in September. Indeed, Fed's decision to keep interest rates at exceptionally low levels at least until mid-2013 and the increasing downside risks to inflation signaled the BOC will leave the overnight rate unchanged at least until mid -2012. That said, it's also unlikely for the central bank to trim interest rates as headline inflation remains high and the job market is robust. |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.55Although the greenback rose marginally to 77.72 this morning, lack of follow through buying on the break of previous resistance at 77.70 and the subsequent retreat retained our view that further consolidation would take place and weakness to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 76.76-85) cannot be ruled out, however, downside should be limited and support at 76.42-53 should attract renewed buying interest and bring another rise later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Despite rising marginally to 77.72 (just 2 ticks above previous resistance), the greenback ran into indicated heavy offers from exporters and has retreated as BOJ disappointed markets with no new easing measures announced. Traders quickly squared their long USD/JPY positions and the pair dropped to as low as 77.07 after the BOJ rate decision. As stated in our previous update bids from Japanese corps and margin accounts have been raised to 77.00-10 and buying interest is still noted in this level and also 76.70 with stops placed below 76.40, 76.20 and further out at 75.90 (large). On the upside, stops remain at 77.80 with offers ahead of this level at 77.60-70 and more selling interest should emerge around 78.00 (option trigger) and 78.20. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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