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Mid-Day Report: Euro Dives as ECB Trichet Turns DovishECB left benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.5% as widely expected. In the press conference, Trichet noted that the economy economic is facing "particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks" even though the bank is still expecting economy to grow "moderately". Regarding inflation, ECB now judges risks for inflation as "balanced" rather than having and upward risk. ECB staff growth projection is lowered to 1.4-1.8% this year, down from prior projection of 1.5-2.5%. For 2012, growth projection is lowed to 0.4-2.2%, down from prior projection of 0.6-2.8%. Inflation is projected to be 2.5-2.7% this year and 1.2-2.2% in 2012, with midpoint at 1.7%. Euro dives after the comments and markets are starting to price in a quarter point cut from ECB over the next twelve months. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4010; (P) 1.4079 (R1) 1.4166; More. EUR/USD's break of 1.3972 support confirms resumption of decline from 1.4548. Intraday bias is back to the downside and further decline should be seen to 1.3837 support next. On the upside, above 1.4149 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound But after all, as long as 1.4548 resistance holds, consolidations from 1.4939 is still in progress and more choppy sideway trading would be seen in near term. |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4030The single currency slipped on dovish comments by ECB’s Trichet and a retest of this week’s low of 1.3972 is likely, break there is needed to extend recent decline from 1.4550 to 1.3950 and later 1.3920/25, however, loss of near term momentum should limit downside to 1.3900 and reckon 1.3850 would hold from here and bring rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 108.30Although the single currency retreated after this week’s rebound from 107.80 to 109.95, as long as said support holds, further consolidation would take place with mild upside bias for another rebound and breach of said resistance at 109.95 would add credence to our view that the 2nd c leg of B has possibly ended at 107.80, bring further gain to 110.23 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 114.16-107.80), then 110.95/00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency extended recent decline below this week’s low of 1.3972 on ECB’s downwardly revised growth projection, a U.S. investment bank was seen selling euro aggressively, cross-related offers from a UK clearer also seen pressuring euro. Stops at 1.3950 were triggered and more option barriers at 1.3925 and 1.3900 are now in focus. On the upside, offers from same parties remain from 1.4000 up to 1.4050 with some stops seen at 1.4065/70 and mixture of offers and stops is tipped at 1.4100-10. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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