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Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Deteriorate Further after Poor Economic Data, Dollar Soars as Risk Selloff AcceleratesRisk selloff continues in European and is extending into US session as market sentiments are further hurt by poor economic data. Global equities are broadly lower with major European indices down -4% to -5% in response to the FOMC triggered global selloff. Dollar index breaks 79 level and is accelerating towards 80. Crude oil and gold are both pressured by strength in dollar with crude oil down over -5% to 81 level while gold is down -4% to 1700 level. Also, note that the never-ending European debt crisis and fear of recession in Eurozone also sent CDS on Germany and France to record high of 108 and 202 respectively. In such situation, it's not a surprise that CDS on Italy and Spain also reaches new record high. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9963; (P) 1.0025; (R1) 1.0142; More. USD/CAD's rally accelerates further to as high as 1.0361 so far and met mentioned target of 61.8% retracement of 1.0851 to 0.9406 at 1.0299 already. Intraday bias remains on the upside and sustained trading above 1.0299 will target 161.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.0009 from 0.9725 at 1.0701 next. On the downside, below 1.0216 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained well above 1.0026 resistance turned support and bring another rally. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Fed Announced Active Operation TwistAs expected, the Fed announced to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities so as to stimulate the economic recovery and to help ensure inflation is consistent with the dual mandate over time. The operation twist that the Fed adopts is an active one. It involves selling $400B of Treasury securities with maturities of 3 years or less and simultaneous purchase of a similar amount of Treasuries in the 6-30 year remaining maturity range. The Fed funds rate was keep unchanged at 0-0.25%. 3 Fed presidents who voted against additional policy easing were Richard Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles Plosser. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchCHF: Although the greenback surged across the board and hit an intra-day high of 0.9183 (highest level since April), offers at 0.9050 were absorbed and stops at 0.9100 were tripped without much difficulties, however, the pair just retreated in New York morning on rumors that the Fed may cut 100 basis points off FX swap lines, i.e. increase liquidity. Having said that, bids are still noted at 0.9020-30 with stops building up below 0.9000 and 0.8975-80, whilst on the upside, offers (for profit-taking purpose) are reported at 0.9110-20. 0.9150 and also 0.9180-90 with next barrier seen at 0.9200 with more stops seen at 0.9210. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9030As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone, on dollar’s broad-based strength, suggesting recent upmove from record low of 0.7068 is still in progress and further gain to 0.9200 would be seen, however, recent rally is a bit over-extended, upside should be limited to 0.9250/55 (50% projection of 0.7711-0.8927 measuring from 0.8647) and price should falter below 0.8295/00 (50% projection of 0.7068-0.8240 measuring from 0.7711) Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0140Despite overnight brief recovery, the Australian dollar has fallen sharply after FOMC and a retest of the a leg bottom at 0.9927 would be seen, however, break there is needed to confirm c leg is unfolding and extend further fall to 0.9900 and later towards 0.9850, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 0.9812 (100% projection of 1.0765-1.0178 measuring from 1.0399) and bring rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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