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Daily Report: Sentiments Stabilized Temporarily as Italy Seeks China BuyingMarkets sentiments stabilized a bit over night on talks that Italy, after having a poor bill auctions yesterday, was soliciting China for buying the country's debts. It's reported that Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti met with China Investment Corp sovereign fund's chairman on the possibly of purchase by the fund. A number of Chinese officials are believed to be involved in the conversation, including those from China's ambassador and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. It's believed that around 4% of Italy's EUR 1.9T of debt is being held by China for the moment even though the exact amount is unclear. EUR/USD turned into range trading after breaching 1.35 level briefly yesterday. Meanwhile, global equities recovered mildly, following late rebound in US stocks. Italy will be selling as much as EUR 7b of bonds today including EUR 4b of a new benchmark 5-year bond The country as completed around 70% of its debt financing this year and is looking at selling another EUR 70b of bonds for the rest of the year to cover its budget deficit and other redemptions. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8555; (P) 0.8596; (R1) 0.8664; More EUR/GBP recovers mildly after dipping to 0.8529. Touching of 0.8632 minor resistance, with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, suggests that a temporary low is formed and intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.8732 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8652 will extend the whole decline from 0.9083 to 100% projection of 0.9083 to 0.8642 from 0.8884 at 0.8443 next. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Stark's Shocking Departure Should Not Affect ECB's Decision MakingThe ECB announced in a statement last Friday that Jürgen Stark, after being a member of the Executive Board and Governing Council of the central bank since June 2006, will resign before the end of his term of office on May 31, 2014 due to 'personal reason. It's also stated that Stark will stay in his current position until a successor is appointed. According to the appointment procedure, it will be by the end of this year. The euro slumped after the news, plummeting as much as -1.8% against USD at one point, amid worries about ECB's monetary stance in the future. We believe Stark's resignation would not affect the central bank's future strategies as all decisions will be based on the mandate to maintain price stability across the Eurozone. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3800Despite overnight retreat to 1.3556, as the single currency found renewed buying interest there and has rebounded, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the bounce from yesterday’s low of 1.3495 to bring retracement of recent decline to 1.3745 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4150-1.3495) and possibly to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3793) but reckon 1.3823 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would hold and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.55Although the greenback rebounded yesterday’s fall to 76.75, as dollar has retreated again after faltering below the Ichimoku cloud as suggested in our previous update, retaining our view that near term downside risk remains for the fall from Friday’s high of 77.86 to extend weakness towards 76.53, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, support at 76.42 should limit downside and bring another rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Although the greenback rebounded yesterday from 76.75 to 77.38, offers from exporters capped dollar's upside and price has retreated as Japanese margin accounts joined selling the pair, selling interest from them remains at 77.40-50 and further out at 77.70 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 77.90-00. On the downside, bids from a Japanese bank are still noted at 76.70-80 with light stops placed below 76.70 but more buying interest is likely to emerge at the usual 76.40-50 with stops planted below 76.40, 76.20 and 75.90 (large). Option expiry today include 77.00 (100 mln), 77.55 (100 mln). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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