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Daily Report: Euro Lower as Wen Dampened China Rescue Hope, Risk Aversion ResumesEuro is mildly lower today after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's comments dampened hope for China to lend a hand in solving the European debt crisis. It's reported earlier this week that Italy was in talk with China on investment of some sorts. But Wen said today in the World Economic Forum in Dalian that "countries must first put their own houses in order". A former adviser to PBoC also said that China shouldn't be a lender of last resort for "troubled countries" even though he thought China could considering by EFSF bonds or Eurobonds when they become available. Also, sentiments are generally hurt by Moody's downgrade of two of France's major banks, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, both by one notch. Moody's said it's still reviewing BNP Paribas and might downgrade it for one notch at most. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5736; (P) 1.5802; (R1) 1.5844; More. GBP/USD's fall extends to as low as 1.5706 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current decline should now extend towards 100% projection of 1.6746 to 1.5780 from 1.6618 at 1.5652 next. On the upside, above 1.5885 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming and would bring consolidations first before staging another fall. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
SNB To Reiterate Unlimited Intervention To Prevent Excessive CHF AppreciationThe SNB meeting on Thursday will likely be reiteration on what was said on September 6, when the central bank drew a line in sand to curb Swiss franc's appreciation. We are, however, interested to see how the SNB would update the inflation forecasts. We expect to see downward revisions from 3 months ago given the recent global economic turmoil and strength in CHF. RBNZ Refrains From Reversing Insurance CutGiven the dramatic global economic downturn since the July RBNZ meeting, we now believe that the central bank will remain on hold in September and probably in October. While there is yet little evidence showing New Zealand's outlook has been hurt by the rising uncertainty in US economy and European debt crisis, such a small and open economy is vulnerable to international shocks. We believe it's prudent for the RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and to deliver a less hawkish statement than the previous one. |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.55As dollar has remained under pressure in part due to cross-buying in yen, test of 76.72/75 support is likely, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, support at 76.42 should limit downside and bring another rebound later. Above resistance at 77.38 would bring a stronger rebound but only break of 77.60/65 would suggest the retreat from 77.86 has ended and bring a retest of said resistance and later towards 78.00/05 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 88.12-75.94), then 78.20/25 but reckon 78.50 would limit upside. Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8710Although the greenback has rebounded after yesterday’s fall to 0.8758, a sustained break of indicated resistance at 0.8880/85 is needed to signal the pullback from 0.8927 has ended there and bring retest of this level, above there would extend upmove from record low of 0.7068 to 0.8950 and possibly 0.8970, however, reckon upside would be limited to psychological resistance at 0.9000, bring correction. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency rebounded yesterday on talk of China may buy Italian bonds, euro ran into heavy offers around 1.3750 and has retreated from 1.3739 on comments from Chinese PM Wen that countries must take responsible fiscal and monetary policies, signaling China may not help solving European debt problems as some investors had hoped for. PBOC adviser Li Daokui echoed by saying China should not buy large amount of European bonds. Risk off trades also put pressure on the single currency and mixture of bids and stops at 1.3600 is in focus, more stops are placed below 1.3550 with some bids from Asian CBs reported above there. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3690/00 and mixture of offers and stops are tipped at 1.3740-50 with more selling interest likely to emerge around 1.3800. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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